Global Sugar Prices Surge Amid EU Market Stability – Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

Sugar prices on the ICE No. 5 exchange continue their upward trend, with futures contracts rising significantly over the past few weeks. Meanwhile, the EU sugar market remains relatively stable, with prices hovering between EUR 0.51/kg and EUR 0.55/kg FCA. However, with global sugar output concerns and potential supply disruptions, the short-term outlook suggests further price increases.

Market Overview: Global Sugar Prices on the Rise

The sugar market has been experiencing a steady upward trend, with ICE No. 5 prices surging again. The most recent data for February 14, 2025, shows:

• May 2025 contract: Increased by USD 8.10 (+1.51%) to USD 537.50/t
• August 2025 contract: Rose by USD 9.20 (+1.76%) to USD 521.40/t
• October 2025 contract: Up USD 9.00 (+1.76%) to USD 512.20/t
• December 2025 contract: Increased by USD 8.50 (+1.67%) to USD 508.00/t

This continued upward momentum follows reports of reduced sugar output in major producing countries, such as India, where sugar production is projected to drop by 17% due to adverse weather conditions and disease outbreaks in key sugarcane-growing regions.

EU Sugar Market: Stability but with Upward Pressure

Unlike the ICE No. 5 market, EU sugar prices have remained relatively stable, currently trading between EUR 0.51/kg and EUR 0.55/kg FCA. Market participants attribute this to a combination of factors:

• Low current demand: Many large buyers have already secured contracts, leaving only about 30% of the annual sugar demand still open for purchase.
• Supply remains sufficient: Despite global supply concerns, the EU has adequate sugar stocks, which has helped prevent sharp price movements.

However, if global sugar prices continue to rise, the EU market may soon experience upward price pressure.

Short-Term Price Forecast (Next Three Days)

Taking into account the last six months of data and the recent bullish trend, we forecast the following price movements for ICE No. 5:

• February 17, 2025: Prices expected to range between USD 540-550/t (May 2025 contract).
• February 18, 2025: Prices may rise to USD 545-555/t, driven by speculation and tight supply.
• February 19, 2025: Possible consolidation, with prices stabilizing between USD 548-558/t, depending on macroeconomic conditions and further supply news.

In the EU market, prices may gradually increase due to increasing global market costs. A minor increase of EUR 0.01-0.02/kg could be expected within the next few days.

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Chart: EU Sugar Price Trend & Forecast

Below is the price evolution for sugar in the EU over the past three weeks, along with a forecast for the next three days.

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Conclusion

With ICE No. 5 prices soaring and global supply concerns intensifying, the short-term sugar market outlook remains bullish. While the EU market has been relatively stable, external price pressures could soon lead to price hikes. Market participants should closely monitor upcoming reports from India and Brazil, as they may significantly impact global supply and price movements.

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