Corn Market Ends Week Stronger Amid Weak US Dollar and Weather Concerns

Corn futures on the CBoT closed higher on Friday, driven by a weaker US dollar and support from wheat prices. However, Argentina’s ongoing drought and delays in Brazil’s second corn crop continue to weigh on market sentiment.

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📈 Market Overview

The March corn contract on CBoT gained 2.75 ct to 496.25 ct/bu (186 EUR/t) on Friday, leading to a weekly increase of 8.75 ct (1.8%).

On Euronext, the March contract remained unchanged at 214.25 EUR/t, marking a 1.75 EUR decline compared to the previous week. Later contracts showed gains, with November 2025 rising by 3 EUR to 222 EUR/t, reaching its highest level in nearly four months.

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🌎 Key Market Drivers

1️⃣ Rising Wheat Market & Weakening US Dollar

Corn prices in Chicago benefited from higher wheat prices and a weaker US dollar on Friday—however, limited fresh news capped gains.

2️⃣ Argentina’s Persistent Drought

• Argentina faces severe drought conditions, raising concerns about corn yield potential.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported a further deterioration in crop conditions.

3️⃣ Brazil's Second Corn Crop Delays

• Delays in soybean harvesting in Brazil have slowed the planting of the second corn crop.
• However, harvesting progress accelerated last week:
  • Patria Agronegocios reported on Friday that 27.3% of the soybean crop had been harvested, up from 16.8% the previous week.
  • The harvest delay gap compared to last year narrowed from 7.0% to 3.4%.
  • New figures from AgRural are expected today.

4️⃣ US Export Sales & Speculative Positioning

• USDA reported Friday a sale of 100,000 tons of corn to Colombia for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
• CFTC data (Feb 11): Speculative investors trimmed their net-long positions in CBoT corn futures and options by 31,828 contracts, bringing the total to 332,389 contracts.

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📊 Market Prices

CBoT Corn Futures

Euronext Corn Futures

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🔮 Conclusion & Market Outlook

Corn prices remain supported by strong US export demand and concerns over South American weather. However, uncertainty about Brazil’s second crop and profit-taking by speculators could limit upside potential.

Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days:

• CBOT Corn (March Contract): Expected range 495–502 ct/bu.
• Euronext Corn (March Contract): Expected range 213–217 EUR/t.

Key factors to watch:

• US Export Demand: If sales remain strong, prices could trend higher.
• Brazil's Soybean Harvest Progress: Faster progress could ease second-crop planting concerns.
• South American Weather Conditions: Further dryness in Argentina may drive speculative buying.

The short-term trend remains neutral to slightly bullish, with potential volatility due to export and weather-related developments.

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