📈 Wheat Markets in Focus: U.S. Prices Rebound While Euronext Faces Pressure – What’s Next? 🌾

The wheat market remains volatile as U.S. futures rebound sharply, driven by strong export sales and weather concerns. Meanwhile, European wheat faces headwinds from weak export demand and a stronger euro, putting pressure on European prices. With shifting global supply dynamics and ongoing trade developments, the next few days could bring further price swings. Read the full market analysis, including price forecasts and key insights. 📊🚜

Short-Term Market Outlook (February 15 - 17, 2025)

🔍 Current Situation:

• CBoT wheat rebounded over the last two days due to strong export data and increased demand.
• Euronext wheat remains weak, pressured by a strong euro and sluggish export demand.
• Russia: Frost risks & export restrictions may support prices in the medium term.
• Saudi Arabia's tender could trigger short-term volatility.

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🔹 Forecast for the Next 3 Days

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📊 Key Factors Influencing Price Movements

✅ Bullish Factors (Potential Price Increase):

• Strong U.S. Wheat Exports: Weekly export sales reached a 7-week high, and the Saudi Arabian tender could drive additional purchases.
• Russian Frost Concerns & Export Restrictions: A potential reduction in Russian wheat exports could support global prices in the coming days.
• Weaker U.S. Dollar Expectations: If the USD declines, U.S. wheat could become more attractive for buyers, further supporting prices.

❌ Bearish Factors (Potential Price Decline):

• Strengthening Euro: If the euro continues to appreciate, Euronext wheat will remain under pressure.
• Healthy EU Wheat Stocks & Weak Export Demand: Limited upside potential in the European market.
• Saudi Tender Outcome Could Disappoint: If Algeria or Saudi Arabia opt for cheaper Black Sea wheat, it could push prices lower in the short term.

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🔮 Conclusion & Trading Strategy

📌 CBoT (U.S. Wheat):

• Slightly bullish short-term outlook, mainly driven by export demand & Saudi tender.
• The price target for March 25 wheat: is 605 - 615 ct/bu (222 - 226 EUR/t).
• Some potential for profit-taking, but a sharp decline is unlikely.

📌 Euronext (EU Wheat):

• Weak export demand & strong euro keep the market under pressure.
• The price target for March 25 wheat: 230 - 235 EUR/t.
• The possible upside is if the Saudi tender results favour EU wheat or if Russian weather conditions worsen.

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🚀 Overall Market Outlook for the Next 3 Days:

✅ CBoT wheat is expected to gain between +1% and +2.5%.❌ Euronext wheat is likely to remain stable or decline slightly (-1% to +0.5%).

📌 Markets remain volatile – traders should closely watch export data & weather updates! 🚜💹

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