Turkish Hazelnut Market – February 2025
Turkish Hazelnut Market – February 2025
Market Overview
The Turkish hazelnut market is currently experiencing a shift in dynamics following an increase in the purchasing bid by the market leader. Despite this adjustment, suppliers remain unsatisfied, arguing that the price does not adequately reflect rising costs, particularly in financing. Farmers and suppliers continue to hold back their stocks, anticipating further price increases.At the same time, the Euro has gained 2% against the Turkish Lira, slightly offsetting higher raw material prices in export price lists. The TMO (Turkish Grain Board) has started selling its stocks, but the quality assessment of these nuts remains pending. While whole blanched and natural kernels remain firm, other processed forms have seen price reductions due to exchange rate advantages.
Price Trends & Market Performance
Current prices for Turkish hazelnut kernels (11–13 mm, g/n) DDP Central Europe (full truckloads):- Organic raw kernels: €8.95/kg
- Conventional raw kernels: €8.08/kg
- Organic roasted kernels: €10.03/kg
- Roasted kernels (2-4 mm): €7.35/kg
- Roasted kernels (0-2 mm): €6.79/kg
- Hazelnut paste: €6.23/kg
- 1 Week: +0.12%
- 1 Quarter: +5.80%
- 1 Half-Year: +14.15%
- 1 Year: +0.73%
- 3 Years: +31.08%
- 5 Years: +16.57%
- 10 Years: -63.36%
- The TRY/EUR exchange rate weakened, as the Euro gained strength.
- This contributed to slightly lower export price lists despite increasing raw material costs.
Current Market Situation
- Market Leader Adjusts Purchasing Price
- The market leader increased its purchasing bid to 290 TRY/kg for natural hazelnut kernels (11-13 mm and 13-15 mm).
- Despite this, suppliers remain reluctant to sell, believing the price is still too low to cover rising costs.
- Some sellers refuse to sell below 300 TRY/kg, which could lead to further price adjustments in the coming weeks.
- Farmers and Suppliers Holding Back
- Farmers and processors are holding back stocks in anticipation of higher prices.
- Crackers have joined in this strategy, reducing the immediate availability of hazelnuts.
- Early reports from hazelnut orchards suggest no record-breaking crop is expected for the next harvest.
- TMO Sales & Market Reactions
- The TMO has sold over one-third of its recent stock offering, but the nuts are yet to be processed, so quality remains unknown.
- TMO’s sale has established a price floor of 145 TRY/kg for in-shell hazelnuts, and some exporters have already accepted this price level.
- Weather Uncertainty & Frost Risks
- A cold front is forecasted to hit Turkey’s Black Sea coast next week, bringing below-freezing temperatures.
- While this is not yet critical, some orchards in coastal regions are at a more advanced development stage, making them more vulnerable.
- Uncertainty over weather conditions has increased market speculation.
- Exchange Rate & Economic Impact
- The Euro has strengthened due to geopolitical developments, particularly the Ukraine conflict.
- Weak US retail data has also pushed down the US Dollar, further impacting currency trends.
- The Turkish Lira weakened by over 2% this week, leading to slightly reduced export price lists despite firm raw material prices.
Bullish Market Factors
- Market leader unable to fulfil total demand
- Even after increasing its purchasing price, the market leader still struggles to secure enough supply and may have to increase bids further.
- Reject rates are higher than usual, meaning the market leader needs to purchase more than in past years to meet its requirements.
- TMO’s sale sets a price floor
- By selling its first batch at 145 TRY/kg, the TMO has effectively established a market floor.
- Exporters are already buying at this level, supporting firm price trends.
- Long-term inflationary pressure
- The Turkish Central Bank aims to stabilize the Lira, but inflation remains above the devaluation rate, likely necessitating higher raw material prices.
- Interest rates remain high, increasing financing costs and keeping upward pressure on market prices.
- Limited alternative supply sources
- By Q1 2025, alternative origins are expected to be depleted, increasing reliance on Turkish hazelnuts.
- Quality concerns are growing, creating a segmented market between high-quality whole kernels and lower-quality processed products.
- Production Costs Rising
- Minimum wages, sorting, and energy costs are all increasing, adding further pressure to prices.
Bearish Market Factors
- Market leaders could be making hidden purchases
- The market leader may already be securing stock through alternative channels, reducing anticipated future demand.
- High interest rates limit stockholding potential
- Speculative stockholding is costly, discouraging excessive inventory buildup.
- Despite this, suppliers continue to hold back, while the market leader purchases through different sources.
- Potential currency shifts
- A shift in Turkey’s interest rate policy could weaken the Lira, impacting export price competitiveness.
- Sufficient physical supply remains available
- While many suppliers are reluctant to sell, product availability has not yet reached a critical shortage level.
- If necessary, additional supply could enter the market from other channels.
- Buyers showing price resistance
- Prices have reached levels that some buyers, particularly in China, are unwilling to pay.
- While some price acceptance exists, the market is nearing a potential price ceiling.
- Uncertainty in the chocolate industry
- Many chocolate manufacturers have scaled back purchases due to uncertain consumer demand.
- Intense exporter competition
- Exporters are under pressure to remain competitive, which could limit price increases.
- TMO sales may offer an alternative supply source
- If TMO continues selling stocks, this could weaken the supply squeeze from farmers.
- Rejected hazelnuts returning to market
- The market leader may release lower-quality rejected stock, increasing short-term supply.
Outlook & Key Considerations
The Turkish hazelnut market remains in a delicate balancing phase, with bullish and bearish factors pulling in opposite directions.Short-term expectations:
- Weather conditions will be closely watched, as potential frost damage could impact supply.
- If the market leader raises its bid above 300 TRY/kg, this could trigger further price increases.
- TMO’s next moves will determine whether additional supply will be released.
- Exchange rate stability will influence export pricing strategies.
- If farmers continue holding back supply, short-term shortages could emerge, pushing prices higher.
- By mid-2025, availability from alternative origins will likely dry up, increasing reliance on Turkey.
Hazelnuts 11-13
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