Rapeseed Gains Weekly Momentum – Market Eyes U.S. Holiday & Argentina’s Weather
Rapeseed Gains Weekly Momentum – Market Eyes U.S. Holiday & Argentina’s Weather
Rapeseed prices at Euronext closed higher on Friday, extending their weekly gains. A weaker US dollar and weather concerns in Argentina supported soybean prices in Chicago, which in turn benefited rapeseed. Canola in Canada also saw moderate gains, driven by the improved sentiment in North America.Market Development
The Euronext May rapeseed contract rose by 4.50 EUR to 526.75 EUR/t on Friday, pushing the weekly gain to 10.25 EUR (2.0%).In the U.S., soybeans and soybean meal closed higher on Friday, while soybean oil declined. The March soybean contract at CBoT gained 6 cents to 1,036 ct/bu (363 EUR/t), limiting its weekly loss to 13.5 cents (1.3%). Due to President’s Day, U.S. markets will remain closed today (Monday).
Key Market Drivers
1. Weak U.S. Dollar & Trade Policy
- A weaker U.S. dollar and weather concerns in Argentina supported soybean prices at CBoT on Friday.
- U.S. President Trump’s softer stance on trade policy also provided relief.
- He stated that reciprocal tariffs would not be implemented immediately, easing fears of escalating trade tensions.
- The improved sentiment in Chicago contributed to higher Canola prices in Canada.
- The March Canola contract at ICE climbed 4.90 CAD to 663.50 CAD/t, recording a weekly gain of 6.70 CAD (1.0%).
2. European Rapeseed Supported by North America & Palm Oil
- EU rapeseed benefitted from stronger North American oilseed prices and firm palm oil prices.
- However, the stronger Euro capped potential gains.
- Market participants monitored poor French winter wheat conditions, raising concerns about rapeseed crop development.
3. Palm Oil Market Trends
- Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher on Friday, marking their fourth consecutive weekly increase.
- Lower stock levels supported the market, but:
- Concerns over demand and uncertainty about Indonesia’s biodiesel policy limited gains.
- The Indonesian government expects its B40 biodiesel program to be fully implemented by March after earlier delays.
4. Fund Positioning
- Speculators at CBoT reduced their net-long positions in soybeans significantly:
- A 28,554 contract reduction brought their total net-long position to just 28,475 contracts.
- This represents a nearly 50% decrease compared to the previous week.
Price Forecast for the Next Three Days
With U.S. markets closed today, trading volumes may be lower than usual. However, key market factors will influence price movements in the coming days:Outlook
- Rapeseed markets remain firm but are closely tied to U.S. soy complex movements.
- Argentina’s weather remains a key factor—additional rainfall could ease concerns.
- Today’s trading activity may be subdued due to U.S. holiday closures.
- The focus shifts to Wednesday’s USDA reports for further market direction.
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