Current Market Report: Sugar Prices Continue to Rise – Forecast for the Coming Days

Market Situation and Recent Price Developments

Sugar prices on the ICE have continued their upward trend in recent days. The May 25 contracts have increased by 1.51% to €503.42/t, while August 25 contracts rose by 1.25% to €485.76/t. October 25 contracts also saw a 1.01% increase to €476.01/t. This ongoing price rally is fueled by growing uncertainties in global markets and rising concerns over sugar production in key producing countries.

Key Drivers of the Current Price Movements

• Declining Production in India: Recent reports indicate a 17% drop in sugar production in India, pushing global prices higher. Experts warn that India’s stock levels could fall below two months of domestic consumption, a historic low.
• Weak Demand in the EU: While the global market is strengthening, demand in the EU remains sluggish. Prices are currently between €0.51/kg and €0.55/kg FCA, with market participants estimating that 30% of the available sugar volume is still unsold.
• Speculation on Export Restrictions: Some producing countries are considering export limitations to stabilize domestic supplies, fueling increased interest in sugar futures.

Forecast for the Next Three Days

Given recent developments, analysts expect prices to continue their upward trend. The forecasted prices are as follows:

• February 18, 2025: €506.00/t
• February 19, 2025: €508.76/t
• February 20, 2025: €513.36/t

This upward momentum could persist in the coming weeks, especially if India tightens its export policies or if global demand continues to rise. However, the EU market remains stable, with minimal price movements and weak demand.



The future trend largely depends on whether major importers start restocking inventories and if new crop forecasts meet or fall short of expectations.

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