Rapeseed Prices Continue Upward Trend – Weather Risks and Market Uncertainty in Focus
Rapeseed Prices Continue Upward Trend – Weather Risks and Market Uncertainty in Focus
Rapeseed prices on Euronext rose for the third consecutive day, supported by higher vegetable oil prices and concerns about extreme cold in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean harvest is falling behind, and Argentina faces hot and dry conditions, adding uncertainty to global oilseed markets.Market Summary
Rapeseed Gains on Euronext
Rapeseed futures on Euronext (MATIF) continued their positive momentum on Monday. The May contract gained €2.50, closing at €529.25/t, while the August contract edged up €1 to €494/t, moving closer to the critical €500 level.Market Drivers: Weather Risks & Vegetable Oil Prices
- Cold Snap in Eastern Europe:Extreme cold temperatures, potentially dropping to -30°C overnight, are raising concerns about winter rapeseed damage in key growing regions, including Eastern Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Ukraine, and Russia.
- Vegetable Oil Support:Rising palm oil prices in Malaysia provided additional support, though gains were capped by lower soybean oil prices and weaker Malaysian palm oil exports.
Soybean & Canola Markets
- U.S. & Canadian Markets Closed:Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) and ICE Canada (ICECA) were closed for the President’s Day holiday. Trading resumed Tuesday with weaker opening prices across the soybean complex.
- Delayed Brazilian Soybean Harvest:
- 23% of Brazil’s soybean crop was harvested as of last Thursday, up 8 percentage points from the previous week but still 9 points behind last year’s pace.
- Hot & Dry Weather in Argentina:
- Weather forecasts predict little rainfall in central Argentina over the next few days. This could negatively impact soybean yields, as crops are entering a critical growth stage.
📊 Euronext (MATIF) Rapeseed Prices
📊 ICE Canada (ICECA) Canola Prices
🔮 Outlook & Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
- Short-term price trend:
- Rapeseed futures are likely to remain supported by cold weather risks in Eastern Europe and dry conditions in Argentina.
- Strength in palm oil and potential soybean oil recovery could provide additional momentum.
- Price range expectations:
- May 2025 Rapeseed (MATIF): Expected to trade between €527 and €533/t.
- May 2025 Canola (ICECA): Likely to fluctuate between CAD 672 and 680/t.
- Key risk factors:
- Weaker soybean oil prices in Chicago.
- Possible import duty hikes on vegetable oils in India.
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