Corn Market Weakens – Euronext Under Pressure, CBoT Opens Lower

After last week's gains, the corn market came under pressure on Monday. While the CBoT was closed for a public holiday, the March contract on Euronext fell by 0.50 EUR to 213.75 EUR/t. The CBoT opened lower on Tuesday morning, influenced by a firmer U.S. dollar and a weaker wheat market.

---

📉 Market Overview

Corn futures on Euronext closed lower on Monday:

• March contract: -0.50 EUR at 213.75 EUR/t
• November contract: -2.50 EUR at 219.50 EUR/t

CBoT corn futures opened lower this morning:

• March future: -2.25 ct at 494.00 ct/bu
• May future: -2.00 ct at 506.75 ct/bu
• July future: -2.00 ct at 509.25 ct/bu

---

🌍 Market Drivers

1️⃣ Weaker Wheat Market & Stronger U.S. Dollar

• The decline in wheat prices weighed on the corn market.
• The U.S. dollar has strengthened, making U.S. exports less competitive.

2️⃣ Delayed Soybean Harvest in Brazil

• According to AgRural, the delay in the Brazilian soybean harvest has widened.
• A significant portion of the second corn crop will be planted outside the optimal window, which closes this week.

3️⃣ Drought Conditions in Argentina

• After recent rainfall, the coming days in key growing regions are expected to be hot and dry again.
• Corn production could remain under pressure, potentially leading to further supply concerns.

4️⃣ Declining Global Ending Stocks

• According to USDA forecasts, global corn ending stocks in 2024/25 are expected to decline by 25.5 million tons to 290.3 million tons.
• If crop losses in South America intensify, the stocks could deplete even faster, which could support corn prices.

---

📊 Market Prices

CBoT Corn Futures

Euronext Corn Futures

---

🔮 Outlook & Price Forecast

Corn prices are under pressure due to a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker wheat prices. However, weather conditions in South America remain a key risk factor.

Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days:

• CBOT Corn (March Contract): Expected range 492–498 ct/bu.
• Euronext Corn (March Contract): Expected range 212–216 EUR/t.

Key Influencing Factors:

• U.S. Export Demand: A slowdown in exports could push prices lower.
• Brazil’s Second Corn Crop: Planting delays could reduce supply and support prices.
• Argentinian Drought: If weather conditions worsen, this could drive prices higher.

The short-term trend remains volatile, with wheat prices, export demand, and South American weather being the key drivers for price movement.

Click here to reach our trading platform CMBroker