Fresh Supply Puts Pressure on Turmeric Prices

The arrival of the new turmeric crop has started in major markets like Nizamabad and Hingoli, causing prices to drop due to increased supply. In January alone, 8,000 tonnes of turmeric arrived in markets, which is higher than the 6,000 tonnes recorded last year. Farmers and traders expected a strong season due to increased sowing, but weather disruptions have created uncertainty regarding overall production.

Expanded Acreage but Lower Productivity Expected

This season, the total area under turmeric cultivation has expanded to 330,000 hectares, marking a 10% increase from last year’s 300,000 hectares. However, the increase in acreage may not lead to a significant rise in production. Untimely rains in key growing regions have impacted crop growth, which could result in lower productivity per hectare.

Last year, India’s turmeric production was 1.075 million tonnes, and while an increase is possible, it may not exceed 1.125 million tonnes. In some areas, such as Nanded, crop productivity is expected to be 10-15% lower, reducing the potential for overall production growth. The actual figures will become clearer in the coming months as harvesting progresses.

Prices May Recover After Initial Decline

Currently, turmeric prices are under pressure. And further declines of USD 0,36–0,60 per kg are expected in the short term. However, if prices fall to USD 1,56 per kg, traders anticipate that they will regain strength once arrivals slow down. Seasonal demand, particularly during the wedding season, could support a gradual recovery in the coming months.

Conclusion: Production Challenges Could Support Prices Later

While turmeric acreage has increased, lower productivity could limit supply growth, preventing a sharp drop in prices. The current decline is largely driven by heavy arrivals, but as the season progresses and demand improves, prices may stabilize and move upward. Farmers and traders should watch the market closely before making major selling decisions.

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