Ukraine’s Soybean Meal Exports See Strong Growth

Ukraine has significantly boosted its soybean meal exports, particularly to the EU market. In December 2024, the country exported 96,000 tonnes, the highest monthly volume since May 2019. From September to December 2024/25 MY, Ukraine’s soybean meal exports rose by 12%, totaling 278,000 tonnes compared to the previous season.

The increase in exports stems from strong demand in the EU and improved profitability for Ukrainian soybean processing plants. However, industry experts note that profit margins are tightening due to falling soybean meal prices, which may impact production levels in the coming months.

USDA Increases Forecast for Global Imports for Meals

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for global imports of soybean meals and pulps for the fourth consecutive month in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY). According to the latest estimates, global imports are expected to reach 103.99 million tonnes, with soybean meal accounting for 73.01 million tonnes, rapeseed meal at 10.35 million tonnes, and sunflower meal at 8.6 million tonnes.

This surge in demand highlights the growing reliance on protein-rich feed ingredients, particularly in China and the European Union (EU), where livestock and poultry farming continue to expand.

China Shifts from Soybean to Alternative Feeds

For years, China has been the world’s largest producer of soybean meal, relying heavily on imported soybeans for processing. Between 2013/14 MY and 2017/18 MY, 93% of China's soybean meal came from imported soybeans. However, recent trends show a decline in this dependency, as China diversifies its feed imports to include sunflower and rapeseed meal.

Since 2018/19 MY, Ukraine has been a key supplier of sunflower meal to China, with Russia joining the list of major exporters in 2022. This shift allows China to lower its reliance on soybean imports while maintaining high-quality feed availability.

Conclusion: Rising Demand with Shifting Trade Patterns

The record-high demand for meals and pulps signals shifting trade dynamics, with China diversifying its feed sources and Ukraine increasing exports to the EU. While soybean meal remains dominant, the growing role of sunflower and rapeseed meal could reshape global trade flows in the future. However, lower soybean meal prices might pose challenges for processing margins, requiring close monitoring by industry stakeholders.

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