Global Supply Concerns Drive EU Sugar Prices Higher

Global sugar markets are facing increasing pressure due to declining production in India and early mill closures in Maharashtra. Meanwhile, the EU sugar market, which had been relatively stable, is now seeing price increases as traders react to global supply concerns.

---

Global Sugar Market Trends

The latest reports from Maharashtra, India, highlight a 16.08% drop in sugar production compared to the previous year, primarily due to lower sugarcane yields, unfavourable weather, and increased ethanol production. As of February 5, 14 sugar mills have shut down early, compared to just seven last year. With a reduced sugarcane supply and lower sugar recovery rates, traders anticipate further market volatility.

Global sugar futures have reacted as follows:

• ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025 contract): +1.77% to USD 547.20/t
• ICE Sugar No. 5 (August 2025 contract): +1.25% to USD 528.00/t
• ICE Sugar No. 5 (October 2025 contract): +1.01% to USD 517.40/t

In EUR (converted at 1 EUR = 1.08 USD):

• May 2025: €506.67/t
• August 2025: €488.89/t
• October 2025: €479.07/t

EU Sugar Market: Prices on the Rise

The European sugar market remained stable for weeks, with prices hovering between EUR 0.51/kg and EUR 0.55/kg FCA. However, in recent days, sugar prices have increased:

• EU sugar prices are now between EUR 0.53/kg and EUR 0.56/kg FCA.

The price increase is attributed to concerns over global supply shortages, although demand in the EU remains weak. Approximately 30% of the total sugar volume is still open for trade, as major buyers had already secured contracts earlier in the season.

Short-Term Price Forecast

Based on recent price movements and market conditions, the three-day outlook for ICE Sugar No. 5 is as follows:

• February 19: Prices are expected to remain within USD 545-550/t, with minor fluctuations.
• February 20-21: Prices could stabilize around USD 540-555/t, depending on further global developments and macroeconomic factors.

Conclusion

The recent price surge in both global and EU sugar markets signals a shift in trader sentiment. While Europe still has sufficient sugar stocks, the global shortfall—especially from India—could keep prices firm in the coming weeks.

Traders and buyers should closely monitor the situation, as any further disruptions could lead to additional price hikes.

Let me know if you need further adjustments! 🚀

3-Day Sugar Price Forecast & Market Outlook

The sugar market continues to show volatility, influenced by global supply concerns and regional demand shifts. Over the past few days, EU sugar prices have risen from €0.53/kg to €0.56/kg FCA, reflecting tightening supply conditions.

The ICE Sugar No. 5 contract has also seen fluctuations, with prices moving between €495 and €505 per ton in recent sessions. The upward trend is driven by reports from Maharashtra, India, where early sugar mill closures and lower sugarcane yields have raised concerns over supply.

3-Day Price Forecast (Feb 19 - Feb 21, 2025):

• Prices are expected to continue rising moderately, reflecting global supply issues.
• The EU sugar price range is forecasted to move between €0.56/kg and €0.58/kg FCA in the short term.
• ICE Sugar No. 5 prices could fluctuate between €505 and €515 per ton, with potential resistance levels at €520 per ton if buying pressure increases.

Market Watch:

• India's sugar production decline could keep prices firm in the coming weeks.
• Ethanol production continues to divert sugarcane away from refining.
• Seasonal demand, particularly in the lead-up to Easter, may further support EU prices.

Traders should remain cautious of external factors such as currency fluctuations and global weather conditions that could impact supply chains.

Click here to reach our trading platform CMBroker