Rapeseed Prices Continue Upward Trend – Market Developments and Outlook

Market Overview

Rapeseed prices on Euronext continued their upward trend for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday. The May contract gained €3.75 to close at €533/t, while the August contract jumped €5.25 to a three-month high of €499.25/t.

In Chicago, soybeans were lifted by stronger corn and soybean oil markets, with the March contract closing 2.5 cents higher at 1,038.5 cents/bu.

Key Market Drivers

• Soybeans Supported by Corn Strength: The soybean market in Chicago found support from firmer corn prices, which helped offset pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar.
• Rapeseed Benefitting from Weaker Euro: A softer euro exchange rate provided additional support for rapeseed, while weaker Canadian Canola prices at the ICE limited further gains.
• Palm Oil Rebound: Malaysian palm oil declined on Tuesday but rebounded sharply today, reacting to stronger soybean oil futures in Chicago.

Global Supply & Demand Trends

• Argentina's Production Concerns:
  • Analyst Michael Cordonnier reduced his Argentine soybean crop estimate by 1.0 million tons to 48.0 million tons due to heat and drought.
  • Last week, USDA also revised its forecast downward by 3 million tons to 49 million tons.
• Brazil's Biodiesel Policy Shift:
  • Brazil’s National Energy Council decided to keep the mandatory biodiesel blending rate at 14% in diesel instead of increasing it to 15% as expected.
  • The Abiove industry association criticized the decision, warning that lower biodiesel demand could pressure soy oil prices.

USDA Export Report & NOPA Crush Data

• Soybean Exports:
  • The latest USDA weekly export report (as of February 13) showed shipments of 720,332 tons, below market expectations of 875,000 – 1.25 million tons.
  • Total U.S. soybean exports for the marketing year now stand at 36.01 million tons, 12.3% higher than the previous year.
• Soybean Processing:
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that 200.38 million bushels of soybeans were processed in January, slightly below market forecasts (204.54 million bu).
  • Soybean oil stocks declined 15.5% year-over-year to 1.27 billion lbs.

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Price Forecast for the Next Three Days

Rapeseed (Euronext)

• Short-term bullish momentum is expected to continue due to strong soybean oil and palm oil markets.
• Resistance at €535/t, support at €525/t.
• Expected range: €528 – €535/t over the next 3 trading days.

Soybeans (CBOT)

• Prices will likely fluctuate as the market weighs Argentine weather concerns against a strong dollar and export slowdowns.
• Resistance at 1,045 cents/bu, support at 1,030 cents/bu.
• Expected range: 1,032 – 1,042 cents/bu in the next 3 trading days.

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