Corn Market Supported by Strong U.S. Exports – CBoT & Euronext Futures Gain

Corn futures rose on Tuesday, with the most-traded May contract at the CBoT closing 5.75 ct higher at 502 ct/bu. On Euronext, the March contract gained 0.50 EUR, closing at 214.25 EUR/t. Strong U.S. export demand and favourable planting conditions in Brazil supported the market, while concerns over Argentina’s drought conditions continued to weigh on supply prospects.

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📉 Market Overview

CBoT Corn Futures:

• March contract: +1.25 ct at 503.25 ct/bu
• May contract: +1.25 ct at 517.00 ct/bu
• July contract: +1.25 ct at 519.75 ct/bu

Euronext Corn Futures:

• March contract: +0.50 EUR at 214.25 EUR/t
• November contract: +0.50 EUR at 221.25 EUR/t

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🌍 Market Drivers

1️⃣ Strong U.S. Export Demand

• USDA’s weekly report showed 1.611 million tons of corn exports in the week ending February 13, exceeding analyst expectations of 975,000t to 1.4 million tons.
• Shipments increased by 53% year-on-year and by 18% week-on-week.
• Total corn exports for 2024/25 now stand at 24.73 million tons, 35% higher than the same period last year.

2️⃣ Improved Planting Conditions in Brazil

• Brazil's second corn crop planting reached 35.7%, compared to 18.8% last week.
• The pace is still behind last year's 45.3%, but favourable weather conditions in Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Paraná have accelerated planting.
• Moisture levels in Mato Grosso do Sul have also improved seed germination.

3️⃣ Concerns Over Argentina’s Corn Crop

• Analyst Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentinian corn production forecast by 1.0 million tons to 46.0 million tons due to irregular rainfall and high temperatures.
• USDA had already lowered its forecast last week from 51.0 million tons to 50.0 million tons.

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📊 Market Prices

CBoT Corn Futures

Euronext Corn Futures

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🔮 Outlook & Price Forecast

Short-Term Trends

Corn prices are supported by strong U.S. export demand but remain sensitive to South American weather conditions.

• Brazil's planting pace has accelerated but remains below last year's levels.
• Argentina’s drought risk continues to be a major concern.
• The global stock outlook remains tight, with further downward adjustments possible if weather conditions worsen.

Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days:

Key Market Influences:

1. U.S. Export Demand: Continued strong shipments may keep prices stable.
2. South American Weather: Drought conditions in Argentina could push prices higher.
3. Weaker Wheat Market: Corn may come under pressure if wheat continues to decline.

Overall, corn prices are expected to trade in a narrow range, with export trends and weather updates being the primary drivers for price movements.

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