📢 Euronext Under Pressure – CBoT Stabilizes, Saudi Tender Avoids EU Wheat 📉📈

After strong gains on Friday, wheat prices at Euronext declined on Monday, while the CBoT in the U.S. opened with slight gains on Tuesday. Russia’s export restrictions continue to reduce supply, but Black Sea wheat remains highly competitive. Cold waves in Russia and the U.S. add uncertainty, while Saudi Arabia’s latest wheat tender confirms that EU wheat is losing market share. What’s next? Our latest report provides a 3-day price forecast and an overview of key market trends. 🚜🌾

---

📊 Market Overview: Euronext Declines, CBoT Stabilizes

After Friday’s sharp price increases, Euronext wheat prices fell on Monday. The March contract dropped by €3.25 to €229.50/t, while the September contract lost €2.50 to €236.50/t.

In the U.S., markets remained closed on Monday due to a holiday, and Tuesday morning trading opened lower before showing some signs of stabilization. The March contract rose by 2 cents to 606.75 ct/bu (approx. €209.40/t), while the May contract gained 2 cents to 619.75 ct/bu (approx. €213.80/t).

---

🌍 Key Market Drivers

1️⃣ Cold Waves in Russia and the U.S.

The frost conditions in Russia and the U.S. Midwest continue to be a major market concern. However, the full extent of potential crop damage will only become clear in spring. Investors are hesitant to take large long positions, as market direction remains uncertain until the impact of winter conditions is fully assessed.

2️⃣ Saudi Arabia’s Wheat Tender: No EU Wheat

On Monday, Saudi Arabia announced the results of its latest wheat tender, confirming once again that EU wheat remains uncompetitive on the global stage.

🔹 The 920,000-ton purchase was dominated by suppliers from the Black Sea region (Russia, Romania, Bulgaria), as well as Australia and Argentina.🔹 EU wheat was absent from the selection, highlighting its struggles with pricing competitiveness against cheaper Black Sea alternatives.🔹 Premiums for high-protein wheat remain high, making it difficult for EU-origin wheat to compete in price-sensitive markets.

3️⃣ Russia: Export Quotas Reduce Shipments

Russia’s wheat exports have significantly dropped in February due to the new export quota that took effect on February 15. Analysts predict only 2 million tons of wheat exports this month, less than half the volume from February 2024.

Additionally, recent Rosstat data indicates that Russia’s on-farm grain stocks have dropped sharply compared to last year:🔹 As of February 1, Russian farms held 23.2 million tons of grain, a 27.3% decline from last year.🔹 Wheat stocks alone fell by 31.5% to 13.7 million tons year-over-year.

The tightening supply could further impact wheat availability and pricing in the coming months.

---

📈 3-Day Price Forecast

Based on the latest market fundamentals, we expect the following price movements over the next three days:

🔹 Euronext (MATIF) Wheat: Downward pressure continues due to weak export demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate between €228–€232/t for the March contract.

🔹 CBoT Wheat: The U.S. market could stabilize if Russian weather concerns increase. The March contract is projected to remain between 605–615 ct/bu (€209–€213/t).

🔹 Black Sea Wheat: Remains highly competitive, limiting short-term export potential for EU wheat.

---

📌 Conclusion

Euronext wheat remains under pressure, as weak export demand and limited weather impact keep prices subdued. The CBoT is showing slight stabilization, but recent gains are mainly driven by technical movements and investor positioning. The coming days will be crucial, particularly with Russia’s weather situation and its potential impact on global wheat supply.

Click here to reach our trading platform CMBroker