Sugar Market Update: Price Trends & 3-Day Forecast

Market Overview

The sugar market continues its upward momentum, with prices firming both in the EU and on the ICE Sugar No. 5 contract.

• EU sugar prices have increased from €0.53/kg to €0.56/kg FCA and are expected to continue firming in the coming days.
• ICE Sugar No. 5 (London) contracts have also shown gains, with May 2025 prices rising by 1.06% to $547.60 per ton.

Key factors driving price movements include:

• India's declining sugar output, production is down 16.08% YoY due to poor weather and reduced yields.
• Early mill closures in Maharashtra, further tightened supply expectations.
• Seasonal demand in the EU, with buyers looking to secure stocks ahead of Easter.

3-Day Price Forecast (Feb 20 - Feb 22, 2025)

• EU sugar prices: Expected to trade between €0.56/kg and €0.58/kg FCA.
• ICE Sugar No. 5 prices: Forecasted to fluctuate between $545 and $555 per ton, with resistance levels at $560 per ton.

Market Outlook

• The global sugar market is currently supply-driven, with lower production levels supporting firm prices.
• Continued concerns over India's sugar stocks and potential export restrictions could provide further upside pressure.
• Traders are closely watching ethanol diversion trends, as more sugarcane is allocated to biofuel production.

With prices trending upward, short-term buying interest remains strong, but external factors such as weather disruptions, government policies, and currency fluctuations could influence market movements.

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