📉 Corn Markets Under Pressure – Profit-Taking and Argentina’s Export Tax Cut Weigh on Prices 📉

After recent gains, CBOT and Euronext corn futures declined on Monday. Profit-taking and Argentina’s decision to cut its export tax on corn contributed to the price drop. Meanwhile, weather conditions in South America remain critical, particularly in Argentina and Brazil.

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📊 Market Developments at the Exchanges

📍 CBOT: Corn Prices Decline on Profit-Taking

Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower on Monday. Profit-taking and Argentina’s decision to reduce its export tax on corn put pressure on prices.

📍 Euronext: Losses Due to a Stronger Euro

Corn futures on Euronext also declined. A stronger euro and a weak wheat market exerted downward pressure on prices.

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🌍 Market Drivers & Key Influences

📌 1. Argentina Cuts Export Tax on Corn

The Argentine government reduced the export tax on corn from 12% to 9.5%, aiming to boost global sales. This increased supply expectations and weighed on international corn prices.

📌 2. Weather Conditions in South America

• 🇦🇷 Argentina:
  • Extreme heat & dryness continue to stress corn crops.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange now rates 37% of corn fields as "poor to very poor" – a 4 percentage point increase from the previous week.
  • Localized rain showers are expected next week, but intense sunlight could limit their benefit.
• 🇧🇷 Brazil:
  • Delays in soybean harvesting are slowing the second-crop (Safrinha) corn planting.
  • According to CONAB, only 35.7% of the fields have been sown – compared to 45.3% last year.
  • The next two weeks are critical for crop development.

📌 3. U.S. Exports Remain Strong

• According to the USDA, corn exports for the week ending February 16 totalled 1.66 million tons, hitting the upper end of expectations.
• This marks a 62% increase from the previous week, with South Korea being the largest buyer at 462,100 tons.

📌 4. Speculators Reduce Corn Positions

• According to the CFTC, managed money traders reduced their net long positions in corn futures by 19,450 contracts to 311,678 contracts, the lowest level in four weeks.

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🔮 Market Outlook & Forecasts

📆 Short-Term Price Forecast (3 Days)

Corn markets are expected to remain volatile in the coming days, influenced by the following factors:✔️ U.S. exports could provide some price support.✔️ South American weather will be closely monitored – potential rains in Argentina may pressure prices.✔️ Delayed Brazilian corn planting remains a risk for the upcoming harvest.

📉 Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days:

• CBOT March 2025: 479 – 485 ct/bu
• Euronext March 2025: 211 – 216 EUR/t

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⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend for Key Growing Areas

🇦🇷 Argentina (Central Regions – Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Santa Fe)

📍 Current Situation: Persistent drought with scattered rainfall.📆 Forecast (14 Days):

• 🌡️ Temperatures rising to 32–36°C (above average).
• 🌧️ Possible rain showers between February 26–28, but unevenly distributed.

🇧🇷 Brazil (Mato Grosso, Goiás, Paraná)

📍 Current Situation: Good moisture reserves, but planting delays.📆 Forecast (14 Days):

• ⛈️ Rainy conditions until February 24, which may further slow planting.
• 🌤️ Drier period starting in early March, potentially beneficial for germination.

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📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks

📦 Stock Changes Since the Start of Reporting

🛑 Since the start of our reporting, global corn stocks have declined by a total of 25.5 million tons!

🌾 Production in Recent Years & Current Forecasts

📊 Summary: While production in Brazil continues to grow, Argentina could suffer significant losses due to drought. Global stocks remain at a 4-year low.

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🔍 Key Takeaways:📉 Corn prices pressured by Argentina’s export tax cut.🌎 South American weather remains a concern – Brazil is delayed, and Argentina suffers from heat.📈 U.S. exports remain strong but offer limited market support.🔮 Markets to stay volatile – weather and export demand will drive prices in the coming weeks.

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