EU Sugar Market Balance: Trends and Forecast for 2024/25

Introduction

The European Union's sugar balance has undergone significant shifts in recent years, driven by changes in production, consumption, and trade flows. While sugar production in 2023/24 remained relatively stable, declining consumption, rising imports, and fluctuating exports have had a direct impact on stock levels and market prices. These factors will play a crucial role in determining the market outlook for 2024/25.

Production and Consumption

Since 2021, EU sugar production has ranged between 15.5 and 16.9 million tonnes. For 2024/25, a slight decline to approximately 15.8 million tonnes is forecasted, representing a -2.5% decrease compared to the previous year.

Sugar consumption for human consumption has shown a decreasing trend. In 2021/22, it stood at 15.9 million tonnes, but by 2023/24, it had dropped to 15.4 million tonnes—a -3.1% decline over the past three years. This reduction is attributed to changing consumer habits, increased use of sugar substitutes, and regulatory measures aimed at reducing sugar intake.

Meanwhile, sugar consumption for ethanol production has remained relatively stable. A slight increase to 2.4 million tonnes is expected for 2024/25, representing a +2.1% rise compared to previous years.

Trade Balance: Imports and Exports

The EU has been importing increasing amounts of sugar from third countries. Imports have surged from 2.0 million tonnes in 2021/22 to 3.4 million tonnes in 2023/24—a +70% increase. In 2024/25, imports are expected to rise further to 3.7 million tonnes, as competitive sugar from Brazil, India, and other major exporters enters the EU market.

Conversely, EU sugar exports have been gradually declining. While 1.7 million tonnes were exported in 2021/22, the figure is expected to drop to 1.2 million tonnes in 2024/25, marking a 29% decrease over three years.

Stock Levels and Market Balance

Despite stable production and rising imports, EU sugar stocks have been declining. In 2021/22, stock levels stood at 2.2 million tonnes, but current forecasts for 2024/25 place them at just 1.8 million tonnes, a -18.2% reduction. This suggests that the market is efficiently absorbing available supply despite increased imports, preventing excessive stockpiling.

Outlook for 2024/25

• Production: Expected to decline slightly (-2.5%) as farmers shift towards other crops.
• Consumption: Sugar consumption continues to decline (-3.1% since 2021/22), while ethanol use remains stable.
• Imports: Rising further, projected to reach 3.7 million tonnes to meet market demand.
• Exports: Declining, as EU sugar remains less competitive on global markets.
• Stock Levels: Declining (-18.2% since 2021/22), despite increasing imports.

These trends indicate that EU sugar prices are likely to remain firm, particularly if the global market remains tight and imports are insufficient to offset shrinking stock levels.

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EU Sugar Market Data (2021–2025 Forecast)