📈 Sugar Market Report – February 20, 2025

📌 Sugar Prices Rise Amid Global Supply Concerns

📍 ICE Sugar No.5 futures continued their upward trend, with the May 2025 contract rising 1.40% to $555.40/t. European sugar prices also increased, ranging between €0.56/kg and €0.58/kg FCA EU. The ongoing global supply squeeze, declining sugar production in key regions, and high ethanol demand keep prices firm.

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📊 1. Market Overview: ICE Sugar No.5 Futures

📈 European Sugar Prices (FCA EU):

• Current price range: €0.56/kg – €0.58/kg
• Last month: €0.53/kg – €0.56/kg (+5.36%)

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Supply Factors

🔹 India’s Sugar Production Decline:

• India’s sugar output is forecasted to fall 17% in the 2024/25 season to 26.52 million tonnes.
• Closing stocks could drop below 4.50 million tonnes by September 30, 2025.
• Weather issues and disease outbreaks have severely impacted sugarcane yields.

🔹 EU Sugar Market – Tightening Stocks & Rising Prices:

• The EU's sugar consumption has declined, but production shortages keep prices elevated.
• EU sugar imports from third countries remain high, but exports are stagnating.

🔹 Brazil’s Export Delays:

• Shipping bottlenecks in Brazil are slowing down sugar exports.
• Ethanol demand remains high, diverting more sugarcane away from raw sugar production.

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🔮 3. Sugar Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: Feb 21–23, 2025)

⏳ Key Takeaway: Prices are expected to remain firm due to tightening global stocks and high ethanol demand.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Trend for Key Sugar-Producing Regions

🇧🇷 Brazil:📌 Wetter remains favourable, but logistics delays are affecting exports.📆 Forecast (Feb 21–Mar 6):

• 🌡️ Temperatures: 27–31°C
• 🌧️ Precipitation: Moderate rainfall in key cane areas, slowing harvest.

🇮🇳 India:📌 Severe sugarcane disease outbreaks affecting output.📆 Forecast (Feb 21–Mar 6):

• 🌡️ Temperatures: 30–35°C (above seasonal norms).
• 🌧️ Dry conditions in key production areas, impacting late-season yields.

🇹🇭 Thailand:📌 Low river levels reduce irrigation, affecting cane growth.📆 Forecast (Feb 21–Mar 6):

• 🌡️ Temperatures: 28–33°C
• 🌧️ Minimal rain, raising supply concerns.

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📉 5. Long-Term Sugar Market Data – EU Overview

🔍 Key Insights:

• EU sugar production is stabilizing after last year's decline.
• Imports remain high as EU domestic output struggles to meet demand.
• Ethanol consumption continues to rise, tightening available sugar supplies.

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🔍 6. Conclusion & Market Outlook

📉 Key Takeaways:✅ Global sugar prices are rising due to lower production in India, Thailand, and Brazil.✅ EU sugar stocks remain tight, keeping prices elevated.✅ Ethanol production diverts more sugarcane, reducing supply for food markets.

🔮 Market Outlook (Next Weeks):📌 Prices are expected to stay firm as global stocks remain tight.📌 Watch for policy shifts in India and Brazil that may affect trade flows.📌 EU buyers may continue to face higher prices due to limited imports.

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