Corn Market Report – February 22, 2025
🌽 Corn Market Report – February 22, 2025
Corn prices remain firm near 16-month highs, with ongoing concerns about weather in Argentina and delayed planting in Brazil. The IGC lowered its global production forecast for 2024/25, while US farmers consider expanding corn acreage. Meanwhile, export demand remains strong, and upcoming USDA sales data could influence short-term price movements. Read on for key market insights, price forecasts, and weather trends! 🚀📊🔹 Market Overview
📈 CBoT: Corn prices consolidated at a high level on Thursday. The front-month March contract closed 0.5 ct higher at 498 ct/bu.📈 Euronext: Corn also strengthened, with the March contract rising 3.50 EUR to 216.25 EUR/t.📊 Key Market Drivers
🌍 Global Supply & Demand
- The International Grains Council (IGC) revised its global corn production forecast for the 2024/25 season downward by 3 Mio t to 1,216 Mio t.
- Compared to the 2023/24 season, production is expected to decrease by 15 Mio t.
- Global ending stocks were raised by 3 Mio t to 275 Mio t in February, but remain 22 Mio t lower than the previous year.
🇦🇷 Argentina – Mixed Crop Conditions
- Recent rainfall improved conditions, reducing the proportion of poor and very poor corn fields from 33% to 30%.
- However, this remains worse than the 15% at the same time last year.
- The upcoming days will bring high temperatures and dry weather, which could deteriorate conditions again.
- Corn plants that suffered from drought during pollination may not recover despite recent rainfall.
🇧🇷 Brazil – Delayed Second Corn Planting
- CONAB reported that 35.7% of Brazil’s second corn crop has been planted, compared to 18.8% last week.
- However, planting progress still lags behind last year’s 45.3% at this time.
- Favourable weather in key producing regions like Mato Grosso and Paraná has helped, but delays remain a concern.
🇺🇸 US Market Factors
- Rising prices could encourage US farmers to expand corn acreage in 2025.
- Analysts at CoBank estimate an increase of 4% in corn-planted area to 94.55 million acres.
- The weekly EIA report showed US ethanol production at 1.084 million barrels/day, 2,000 barrels/day more than the previous week.
- Ethanol stocks increased by 526,000 barrels to 26.218 million barrels.
🚢 US Corn Exports
- The USDA export sales report (delayed due to Monday's holiday) will be released today.
- Market expectations for 2024/25 corn export sales: 0.9 – 1.6 Mio t.
- New crop sales (2025/26) expected between 0 – 200,000 t.
🔥 Corn Market Trends & Price Forecast
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
- CBoT: Prices are expected to fluctuate within the current range, supported by South American weather concerns but facing resistance near recent highs.
- Euronext: Prices likely to remain firm, tracking the CBoT but also influenced by European wheat markets.
- Key Factors: US export sales data, weather in Argentina & Brazil, ethanol production.
☀️ 14-Day Weather Trend for Key Growing Regions
📍 Argentina:- The next few days will be hot and dry, with temperatures exceeding 35°C in key production areas.
- Rain is expected next week, but not enough to reverse recent drought impacts.
- Central Brazil (Mato Grosso, Goiás, Paraná) will experience warm temperatures and occasional showers.
- Soil moisture conditions remain favorable for germination, but delayed planting remains a concern.
📈 Corn Futures Overview
📌 Euronext Corn Prices (EUR/t)
📌 CBoT Corn Prices (US-Cent/bu)
📌 Summary
- Corn futures remain near 16-month highs, supported by weather concerns in Argentina and delayed planting in Brazil.
- Global stocks (275 Mio t) remain significantly lower than last year (-22 Mio t).
- US farmers may increase corn acreage due to improved price incentives.
- Export demand remains strong, with USDA sales data expected today.
- Short-term: Prices are expected to remain firm, with potential for volatility due to global supply concerns and US planting outlook.
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