California Almond Market – Strong Exports Despite Smaller Crop
📉 California Almond Market – Strong Exports Despite Smaller Crop
📍 January shipments exceeded expectations – Market remains firm with rising pricesJanuary shipments totalled 103.7 thousand metric tons (228.6 million lbs.), a 3.1% decrease compared to January 2024. Despite this slight decline, shipments were significantly higher than industry experts had predicted. The export market remained strong, with India, Europe, and the Middle East leading purchases.
📌 Key Market Drivers:✔ High sales volume of 108 thousand metric tons (238 million lbs.) in January.✔ Firm market, as 59.9% of the expected crop is already sold.✔ Inshell prices rising, driven by strong Indian demand.✔ Bloom delayed in Southern California, weather conditions remain uncertain.✔ The strong U.S. Dollar puts pressure on exports, but demand stays high.
📈 Outlook:With fully booked February shipments and rising Inshell prices, the market remains strong, while the upcoming bloom will determine the 2025 crop potential.
➡ Full details on market trends, price forecasts & recommendations below! 🚀
📊 1. Market Overview: Prices & Developments
💰 Current Almond Prices (California, USD/lb FOB)
📌 Market Trends:- Prices stabilized after a slight dip in January, supported by strong February sales.
- Inshell prices are increasing, fueled by renewed demand from India.
- High European demand, particularly for smaller sizes.
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Key Factors
📦 Supply & Production
📌 Key Takeaways:- Strong sales activity in January, totalling 108 thousand metric tons (238 million lbs.).
- The final crop is expected at 2.7 – 2.8 billion lbs., slightly below the CASS forecast.
- 59.9% of the expected crop is already sold, reinforcing a firm market outlook.
🌦️ Weather & Bloom Update
- January was unusually dry, reducing chill hours for almond trees.
- February brought rain & wind, impacting bloom development:
- Northern California: 50–75% of orchards already in bloom.
- Central & Southern California: Bloom delayed due to cooler temperatures.
- Experts estimate the 2025 crop between 2.5 and 2.9 billion lbs., but uncertainty remains.
📈 Exchange Rate Developments
📌 Market Impact:- Stronger USD makes U.S. almonds more expensive in export markets.
- Indian Rupee weakens, but high Inshell demand offsets this effect.
🔮 3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days)
📉 Expected Price Movements (FOB California, USD/lb)📌 Key Factors:
- February shipping schedules are full, limiting available stock and supporting prices.
- Bloom progress is critical → Delays could provide short-term price stability.
⛅ 4. Weather Outlook (Next 14 Days)
📍 California (San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento Valley)📆 Forecast (14 Days):- 🌡️ Temperatures: 8–20°C (cool for this time of year).
- 🌧️ Rainfall: 30–60 mm (Northern California), 10–25 mm (Central California).
- Possible Impact: Delayed bloom in Southern regions.
- 🌡️ Temperatures: 25–33°C, normal.
- 🌧️ Dry weather → Supporting strong Inshell demand.
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
🌎 Global Almond Stocks
📌 Summary:- Global stocks continue declining, which supports medium-term price stability.
- U.S. inventories are lower than expected, reinforcing a firm market.
🔍 6. Conclusion & Market Recommendations
📌 Market Outlook
✔ Strong exports keep the market firm.✔ Robust demand from India & Europe, particularly for Inshell products.✔ Uncertain weather conditions, but lower inventories support firm prices.📌 Recommendations for Market Participants
📈 For Sellers (Growers, Exporters)✅ Capitalize on current demand to secure sales.✅ Inshell prices are rising – strategic selling recommended!✅ Monitor exchange rates to optimize export opportunities.📉 For Buyers (Roasters, Traders)✅ Long-term contracts are advised before prices rise further.✅ Inshell purchases should be secured soon, as India is driving the market.✅ Closely watch weather developments – potential risks for the next crop!
📅 Next Position Report: March 12, 2025📈 Bloom Monitoring: February–March 2025
🚀 Stay informed with the latest market updates! 🚀
