Rapeseed Market Mixed – Soybeans Under Pressure, Canola Gains
📈 Rapeseed Market Mixed – Soybeans Under Pressure, Canola Gains
📍 The Euronext rapeseed market closed mixed on Wednesday. The May contract dropped by €3.75 to €529.25/t, while 2025 harvest contracts saw slight gains. Soybeans and soybean oil faced losses at the CBoT, while soybean meal rebounded. Canola at the ICE in Canada stabilized due to tight supply.📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- Weak Corn Market Weighs on Soybeans 📉→ A declining corn market dragged soybeans lower, pressuring rapeseed as well.
- Malaysia: Strong Palm Oil Price Gains 🌿→ Malaysian palm oil futures surged over 3%, supported by pre-conference buying and weather risks in Southeast Asia.
- Brazil: Crop Forecasts Slightly Lowered 📉→ Agroconsult reduced Brazil’s soybean harvest forecast by 1.1 MMT to 171.3 MMT, still a record high.→ Mato Grosso: Expected to exceed 50 MMT of soybean production for the first time.→ Rio Grande do Sul & Mato Grosso do Sul: Severe yield losses in some areas deemed “irreversible.”
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Heatwave Adds Crop Stress
📍 Current Conditions:→ Ongoing drought, and rising temperatures.📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Expected to exceed 35°C.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Showers expected next week but uneven distribution.
- 🚨 Impact: Increased stress on soybeans, the potential for further yield declines.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Sideways to slightly higher, supported by rising palm oil prices.
- Resistance Level: €535/t
- Support Level: €525/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €526 – €534/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Continued volatility, dependent on Argentine weather.
- Resistance Level: 1,040 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,025 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,028 – 1,038 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:- Soybeans remain weak, rapeseed pressured – Palm oil supports the market.
- Brazil adjusts forecasts slightly lower – but remains on record pace.
- Heatwaves in Argentina could further impact soybean production.
