Drop in Ukraine’s High-Oleic Sunflower Oil

For the fifth consecutive season, Ukraine’s exports of high-oleic sunflower oil have continued to decline, with the 2024/25 marketing year following this trend.

Between September and December 2024, Ukraine exported just 57,000 tonnes of high-oleic sunflower oil, marking a 52% decline from the previous year and the lowest volume in seven years. This category now accounts for just 3% of Ukraine’s total sunflower oil exports, a decrease from the 5-8% range seen in previous years.

Why Are Exports Falling?

The reduction in supply is primarily due to a decrease in high-oleic sunflower production in 2024, coupled with farmers withholding sales amid rising input costs for classic sunflower hybrids. With fewer farmers opting for high-oleic varieties, the market has experienced a global price surge and a higher premium for this type of oil.

Surging Premiums for High-Oleic Sunflower

Over the past month, the premium for high-oleic sunflower oil in Ukraine has risen from USD 0,106 to USD 0,133 per kg, compared to regular sunflower oil prices. This significant increase has prompted more farmers to sell their stocks.

Demand prices for high-oleic sunflower with 48% oil content and delivery to processing plants have increased to USD 0,826 to USD 0,853 per kg, with an additional premium of USD 0,026 to USD 0,040 per kg for higher oil content.

What to Expect for the Rest of the Season?

As farmers begin selling their stocks in the spring, processing volumes may increase, potentially leading to a rise in exports during the second half of the season.

According to APK-Inform Agency, Ukraine’s total high-oleic sunflower oil exports for the 2024/25 may range between 220,000 and 240,000 tonnes, down from 289,000 tonnes in 2023/24. This could be one of the lowest export figures in recent years.

Meanwhile, the rising cost of high-oleic sunflower oil, along with its increasing price gap compared to rapeseed oil, could further slow down exports, as buyers explore cheaper alternatives on the global market.

Conclusion: Rising Prices Following Opportunities

As Ukraine’s high-oleic sunflower oil exports continue to decline, the industry faces significant challenges, but also potential opportunities for the remainder of the 2024/25 marketing year. The notable increase in premium prices reflects the tight supply conditions, compelling farmers to release their stocks. While the next few weeks will be critical in determining the extent of the season’s exports, the surge in price for high-oleic variants is expected to test the flexibility of global buyers as they weigh the benefits of quality against rising costs.

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