Corn Stock-to-Demand Ratio Nears Historic Lows

The global corn stock-to-demand ratio is set to drop to its lowest level in 11 years this year. However, considering only the stocks available for trade, this ratio will be at an almost 30-year low, according to a Reuters report.

For 2024/25, the world’s corn stock-to-demand ratio (excluding China) is projected at 7.8%, the lowest since 1995/96. Over the past four seasons, this figure averaged 9.2%, while the 20-year average sits at 11%. Including China’s massive reserves, the global stock-to-demand ratio is expected to fall to 20.3%, the lowest since 2013/14. Over the past 10 years, the average has been 24.6%, with the previous lowest point at 22.2%.

Between 2000-2010, the global corn stock-to-demand ratio hovered around 15%. So while the current situation isn't considered a full-blown crisis, China’s stockpile skews global balance figures.

China’s Influence on Global Corn Stock Calculations

China, which fluctuates between reducing and increasing corn imports, holds five times more corn stocks than the United States. Since these stocks are rarely available in global trade, many analysts exclude them from world balance calculations to reflect realistic supply availability.

According to USDA data, global corn stocks (excluding China) at the start of 2025 stood at 87 million tonnes, marking a 12-year low. In Brazil, the world’s second-largest corn exporter, stocks are at their lowest level in 20 years. Meanwhile, in the EU and Ukraine, stocks have hit a 10-year low, while U.S. reserves are also tightening.

China’s Growing Share in Global Corn Reserves

Back in the mid-2000s, China held about 30% of global corn reserves. However, by the early 2010s, domestic production surged, and now China accounts for over 60% of global corn stocks. By 2024/25, this share is expected to hit a 28-year high of 70%.

China’s corn stockpiling program—which allowed farmers to sell their crops at above-market prices—started in 2008 but was discontinued in 2016 due to mounting government costs. Even after the program ended, government subsidies helped keep domestic production high, leading to large corn reserves.

Since China plays a minimal role in global corn trade, its inclusion in world stock calculations remains controversial. While China has been the world’s largest grain importer for five years, it has cut imports significantly this season.

For comparison:

• China imports only 7% of its corn needs
• Japan and South Korea import nearly 100%
• Mexico imports over 50%

These figures explain why China is often excluded from global balance sheets. However, with such large shifts in import volumes, analysts now consider both methods for a more accurate global outlook.

U.S. Corn Stocks Expected to Tighten

In the United States, the largest corn exporter, stocks are running lower than expected. USDA data for 2024/25 shows the U.S. stock-to-demand ratio at 10.2%, down from 11.8% last year and 12.5% over the past decade.

Earlier estimates had pegged the ratio at 14%, but lower-than-expected yields and strong demand have drained supplies faster.

Conclusion: U.S. Corn Farmers Efforts To Ease Pressure

U.S. farmers plan to expand corn acreage, which could push prices down. However, even with increased planting, the U.S. will remain the dominant supplier in the global export market, ensuring steady supply for key buyers like China—if it decides to ramp up imports again.

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