Corn Profit-Taking Ahead of USDA Outlook Forum – South American Weather in Focus
🌽 Corn Profit-Taking Weighs on Prices – Focus on USDA Outlook Forum & South American Weather
Corn prices at the CBoT had surged to an 18-month high on Tuesday, but profit-taking led to losses by Friday. However, new crop contracts still showed slight gains every week. The relatively high price levels of new crop corn compared to soybeans and wheat could encourage farmers in the U.S. to expand corn acreage. The USDA Outlook Forum on Thursday and Friday is expected to provide initial figures, including survey results on U.S. farmers' planting intentions. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate that the USDA will project a planting area of 93.5 million acres (ranging from 92 to 95.1 million acres), with all analysts expecting an increase compared to last year’s 90.6 million acres.
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📉 Market Overview
The corn market at the CBoT ended the week with losses. The most actively traded May contract fell by 7.75 ct to 505 ct/bu (190 EUR/t), translating to a weekly loss of 3.75 ct (0.7%). At Euronext, the June futures declined by 0.25 EUR to 223.25 EUR/t, closing exactly at the previous week's level.Corn prices at the CBoT had surged to an 18-month high on Tuesday, but profit-taking led to losses by Friday. However, new crop contracts still showed slight gains every week. The relatively high price levels of new crop corn compared to soybeans and wheat could encourage farmers in the U.S. to expand corn acreage. The USDA Outlook Forum on Thursday and Friday is expected to provide initial figures, including survey results on U.S. farmers' planting intentions. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate that the USDA will project a planting area of 93.5 million acres (ranging from 92 to 95.1 million acres), with all analysts expecting an increase compared to last year’s 90.6 million acres.
🌦️ Weather Outlook: South America in Focus
The market continues to monitor weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil:- Argentina: Widespread rainfall is expected this week, potentially improving yield prospects for late-planted crops.
- Brazil: Expected rainfall has both positive and negative effects. While the already planted corn benefits, excessive rain could disrupt the soybean harvest, delaying the planting of second-crop corn, which is sown on the same fields.
📊 14-Day Weather Trend for Key Growing Regions
- Argentina: Hot and dry conditions are expected to return after this week's rain, maintaining concerns over crop stress.
- Brazil (Central & Southern Regions): Persistent rainfall could cause delays in harvesting and planting activities.
📈 Export & Inventory Insights
- USDA Weekly Export Report (Feb 13):
- Corn sales reached 1.454 million tons, at the upper end of the expected range (0.9 – 1.6 million tons).
- This represents a 12% decrease compared to the previous week but 77% higher than the same week in 2024.
- Total export commitments now stand at 47.87 million tons, marking a 29% increase YoY.
- 77% of the USDA’s full-year export projection for 2024/25 has now been reached, which is 3 percentage points above the average pace.
- Global Ending Stocks (USDA February Report):
- 2024/25: 290.3 million tons (-25.5 million tons YoY)
- 2023/24: 315.8 million tons
- 2022/23: 335.2 million tons
- Trend: Global stocks continue to shrink due to production declines in South America.
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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
🔍 Conclusion & Key Takeaways
- The corn market remains volatile with prices consolidating after recent highs.
- USDA Outlook Forum will be crucial for understanding planting intentions in the U.S.
- South American weather continues to impact global supply prospects.
- Export sales remain strong, supporting price stability.
- Short-term correction is possible, but fundamentals remain bullish for the mid-term.
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