Turkish Hazelnut Marke Rising Speculation Amid Weather Uncertainty
📉 Turkish Hazelnut Marke Rising Speculation Amid Weather Uncertainty
📍 The Turkish hazelnut market remains highly speculative as farmers and suppliers hold back stocks, anticipating higher prices. The TMO (Turkish Grain Board) sales have set a price floor, while frost risks over the weekend have increased uncertainty about the 2025 harvest.📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
🔹 Key Developments:✅ The market leader increased its purchasing bid, but suppliers still expect further price hikes.✅ TMO sales set a floor price of 145 TRY/kg for in-shell hazelnuts.✅ Currency impact: The Turkish Lira was stable this week, having no direct influence on export pricing.✅ Uncertainty over frost damage could lead to speculative price moves in the coming weeks.
🌍 Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
🔹 TMO Enters the Market- The first TMO stock sales were executed at competitive prices, increasing supply.
- Smaller-sized kernels saw downward price pressure due to TMO’s sales volumes.
- Farmers and processors continue to hold stocks, aiming for better pricing in March-April.
- This has tightened immediate availability, particularly for high-quality kernels.
- A cold front hit Turkey’s Black Sea coast over the weekend, with temperatures reaching -18°C in some regions.
- While initial damage reports suggest minimal impact, market participants remain uncertain about long-term effects.
- Speculative buying may increase if frost-related concerns grow in the coming weeks.
- The price gap between 9-11 mm and 11-13 mm kernels has widened to 2 €/kg (historically, 0.50 €/kg).
- High-quality kernels remain in demand, while lower-grade kernels are under price pressure.
🔮 Market Forecast (Next 3 Days)
📉 Expected Price Trends:- High-quality raw kernels (11-13 mm): Likely stable, range: 8.00 – 8.10 €/kg.
- Smaller-caliber kernels & processed products: A slight decline is expected due to TMO sales impact.
- Potential short-term upside if frost speculation increases.
⛅ Weather Trend (Next 14 Days)
🇹🇷 Turkey – Black Sea Hazelnut Growing Regions📍 Current:❄️ Cold front with snowfall hit key hazelnut regions.🌡️ Temperatures between -3°C and -10°C in coastal areas, down to -18°C in high altitudes.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):
- 🌡️ Temperatures to rise slightly next week (0°C to 7°C).
- 🌧️ Rain is expected after February 10, reducing frost risks.
- No extreme weather is expected beyond mid-February, easing immediate concerns.
📉 Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
📍 Global Hazelnut Ending Stocks (Last 4 Years):📍 Turkish Hazelnut Production & Forecast:
🔹 Takeaways:
- Global stocks continue to decline, supporting long-term price stability.
- Turkey’s production trend remains slightly downward, reinforcing supply concerns.
🔍 Key Takeaways & Market Recommendations
📌 Summary:✔️ The market remains firm but highly speculative, with TMO sales increasing short-term supply.✔️ Frost risks & weather conditions will determine upcoming price trends.✔️ Farmers & suppliers are holding stocks, limiting immediate availability.✔️ High-quality kernels are in demand, while processed & smaller sizes face price pressure.📈 Strategic Outlook:➡️ Short-term: Prices stable, the marginal downside for smaller calibres & processed goods.➡️ Medium-term: Potential upside if frost damage materializes or if the market leader raises purchasing bids.➡️ Long-term: Strong demand & lower global stocks to keep prices firm into 2025.
🔍 Actionable Insights:💡 Buyers:
- Secure high-quality raw kernels early, as premium stock is limited.
- Monitor frost developments closely for potential price spikes.
- The holding strategy may work short-term, but TMO’s influence limits extreme price hikes.
- Smaller-caliber and processed kernels should be sold sooner, as demand remains weak.
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