📉 Rapeseed Market Softens Ahead of the Weekend – Soybeans Also Under Pressure

📍 Rapeseed at Euronext ended the week slightly weaker, with the May contract down €2.75 to €530.25/t, reducing the weekly gain to €3.50 (0.7%). Soybean futures at CBoT also declined on Friday, with May soybeans losing 5.75 ct to 1,057.25 ct/bu (371 €/t). However, soybeans still managed a weekly gain of 4.5 ct (0.4%).

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📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends

🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products

📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures

📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures

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🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

📌 Key Market Developments

• Strong Brazilian Soybean Crop Pressures Prices 📉→ Brazil’s record harvest is offsetting concerns over Argentina’s drought-stricken soybean crop.→ Recent price gains triggered profit-taking ahead of the weekend, leading to slight declines in rapeseed and soybeans.
• U.S. Farmers Expected to Shift Towards Corn 🌽→ The USDA Outlook Forum (Thursday & Friday) will release initial U.S. planting estimates.→ Analysts expect U.S. soybean acreage at 84.4 million acres, down 2.7 million acres from last year.
• Funds Reducing Long Positions on Soybeans 📉→ CFTC report: Speculative long positions in CBoT soybean futures dropped by 11,949 contracts, down to 16,526 contracts, indicating less confidence in rising prices.
• Palm Oil Prices Continue Rally – Supporting Rapeseed 🌿→ Malaysian palm oil futures posted their 5th consecutive weekly gain, the longest rally in 3 years.→ Lower production in Malaysia is expected to reduce inventories in February, supporting vegetable oil markets.
• Crude Oil Prices Weigh on Market Sentiment 🛢️→ Weaker crude oil prices pressured vegetable oils.→ A stronger USD and weak U.S. economic data dampened energy demand expectations.→ Reports of potential U.S.-Russia peace talks raised speculation of sanctions easing, possibly increasing Russian oil supply.

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⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast

🇦🇷 Argentina: Extreme Heat & Drought Continue

📍 Current Conditions:→ Persistent drought with high temperatures.

📆 14-Day Outlook:

• 🌡️ Temperatures: Above 35°C in key growing regions.
• 🌧️ Rainfall: Scattered showers are expected next week.
• 🚨 Impact: Risk of further yield losses in soybean crops.

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🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days

📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)

• Trend: Supported by strong vegetable oil markets, but crude oil weakness weighs.
• Resistance Level: €535/t
• Support Level: €525/t
• 📊 Expected Range: €526 – €533/t

📉 Soybeans (CBoT)

• Trend: Impacted by strong Brazilian harvest and shifting U.S. planting intentions.
• Resistance Level: 1,065 ct/bu
• Support Level: 1,050 ct/bu
• 📊 Expected Range: 1,052 – 1,062 ct/bu

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📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

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🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations

📉 Market Insights:

• Rapeseed weakened slightly, and soybeans were pressured by Brazilian supply.
• Palm oil continues to rise, offering support to vegetable oil markets.
• USDA planting estimates and crude oil trends will drive sentiment next week.

🔮 Markets remain volatile – key drivers include South American crop developments and global energy trends.

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