Rainfall Reduces Yield Risk for Key Rabi Crops in India

Recent showers across major Rabi-growing states of India—Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana—have helped reduce the risk of crop yield losses. Crops such as wheat, chickpeas, and mustard have benefited from the moisture, countering the effects of rising temperatures this month. However, the threat of hailstorms and strong winds in certain areas still poses a risk to standing crops.

Temperature Trends and Weather Forecasts

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts a steady increase in minimum temperatures by 2-4°C in northwestern and central India over the next few days. Additionally, maximum temperatures are also set to rise by a similar range across the plains. Despite these temperature fluctuations, no significant changes are expected in the rest of the country until February 29.

Farmers in key agricultural states are closely monitoring these changes, as fluctuating temperatures can impact grain filling and oil content in crops. Additionally, an extended warm spell may accelerate crop maturity, potentially affecting yields.

Impact of Western Disturbances

A fresh Western Disturbance is expected to bring light to moderate rainfall across Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh between February 26 and March 1. Similar weather conditions are forecast for Rajasthan from February 27 to 28. Farmers must stay alert as excessive rain, combined with strong winds, could impact crop health.

Historically, excessive rainfall at this stage has led to lodging in wheat and mustard crops, reducing overall productivity. Thus, farmers are being advised to take preventive measures, such as proper field drainage and timely application of growth regulators.

Long-Term Weather Concerns for Agriculture

Historical data shows that last year, unusually high minimum temperatures in central India led to shriveled wheat grains, prompting government intervention. With rising temperatures once again becoming a concern, farmers and agricultural authorities will need to monitor weather patterns closely. Experts believe that unseasonal temperature spikes could affect grain quality and necessitate further government intervention.

Conclusion: Weather Remains a Key Factor for Rabi Crops

While recent rains have provided relief, unpredictable weather conditions still pose risks for Rabi crops. Farmers should stay prepared for temperature variations and possible storms in the coming days. With harvest season approaching, ensuring optimal crop conditions will be crucial for maintaining both quality and quantity.

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