Rapeseed and Canola Decline – Soybeans Under Pressure from Improved Weather in Argentina
📉 Rapeseed and Canola Decline – Soybeans Under Pressure from Improved Weather in Argentina
📍 Rapeseed at Euronext continued to slide on Monday, with the May contract dropping €6.75 to €523.50/t. Soybeans at CBoT also weakened, with the May contract down 9.75 ct to 1,047.5 ct/bu (367 €/t). Canola in Winnipeg plummeted, with the May contract losing 20.40 CAD to 659.30 CAD/t, marking its largest daily decline in weeks.📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- Soybeans Weaken as Weather Improves in Argentina 🌦️→ Forecasts predict ample rainfall in Argentina’s key soybean regions through early March.→ These rains could prevent significant yield losses, reducing the risk premium in soybean prices.
- Brazil's Soybean Harvest Progressing Rapidly 🚜→ AgRural lowered its 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop forecast to 168.2 MMT (down from 171 MMT).→ 39% of the soybean area was harvested by February 22, nearly matching last year's pace (40%).
- Canola Suffers Heavy Losses as Funds Hold Large Long Positions 📉→ Every time Canola futures approach 680 CAD/t, prices retreat due to technical resistance and fund selling.→ Speculative long positions in ICE Canola remain large, raising the risk of further liquidation.
- Palm Oil Drops Over 2% on Weak Demand from India 🏦→ Malaysian palm oil futures fell by over 2% on Monday, marking the largest daily drop in a month.→ Weaker vegetable oil prices in China (Dalian) and Chicago (Soybean Oil) contributed to the decline.
- USDA Export Inspections – Soybean Shipments Declining 🚢→ USDA reported weekly soybean exports at 858,679 tons, down 19% YoY but up 18% WoW.→ Cumulative exports for the 2024/25 season are 36.88 MMT, 11% higher than last year.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Beneficial Rainfall Expected
📍 Current Conditions:→ Drought persists, but rain is on the way.📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Moderate, between 25–32°C.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Widespread rain is expected in key growing areas, with 50–100 mm possible.
- 🚨 Impact: Could improve late-season crop conditions, stabilizing soybean production.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Pressured by weak canola and falling palm oil, but supported by strong soybean oil demand.
- Resistance Level: €530/t
- Support Level: €518/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €520 – €527/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Market reacting to improving weather in Argentina and faster Brazilian harvest progress.
- Resistance Level: 1,060 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,040 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,043 – 1,055 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:- Rapeseed and canola markets weakened sharply as funds liquidated long positions.
- Soybeans pressured by improving Argentinian weather and rapid Brazilian harvest progress.
- Palm oil dropped significantly, adding pressure on vegetable oil markets.
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