Corn Market Retreats as South American Crop Outlook Improves

📉 Market Overview

The corn market at the CBoT declined on Monday, with old crop contracts suffering larger losses. The most actively traded May futures dropped 8 cents to 497 cents/bu. Meanwhile, on the Euronext, the June contract fell 4 EUR to a four-week low of 219.25 EUR/t.

📊 Key Market Drivers

🔹 Profit-Taking After Recent Highs:Chicago corn futures retreated further from last week's multi-month highs, as improved weather conditions in South America reduced concerns over yield losses and triggered profit-taking.

🔹 Large Speculative Long Positions:Commodity funds hold a massive net long position in CBoT corn futures. This makes the market vulnerable to liquidation when bearish news emerges, accelerating price declines.

🔹 Improved South American Crop Outlook:

• 🌧 Argentina: In the central growing regions, widespread and frequent rainfall is expected over the next two weeks, according to the Commodity Weather Group.
• 🌱 Brazil: Progress in the second corn crop (Safrinha) planting is accelerating, reaching 64% of the expected area by last Thursday. This is a sharp increase from the 36% reported a week earlier, although it still lags behind last year’s 73%.
• Soybean Harvest Catching Up: The faster soybean harvest is improving conditions for a swift completion of corn planting, as both crops share the same fields.

🌍 USDA Export Report

📦 US Corn Export Inspections (Week ending Feb 20):✅ 1.134 million tons, at the lower end of trade expectations (1.0 - 1.75 million tons).⬇ -30% vs. last week⬇ -12% vs. same week in 2024📈 Total exports in 2024/25: 24.874 million tons (+32% YoY).

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📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)

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📉 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)

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📊 3-Day Price Forecast

🔹 CBoT Corn: Expected to stabilize around $4.95 - $5.05/bu, with possible minor gains if speculative funds reduce short positions.🔹 Euronext Corn: Prices may remain under pressure, fluctuating between €218 - €223/t, tracking global market sentiment.

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🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

☀ Argentina:

• Heavy rain is expected in major growing areas, easing drought concerns.
• Possible yield improvements on late-planted crops.

🌧 Brazil:

• Increased rainfall aiding planted corn.
• This could slow down the remaining soybean harvest and delay final corn planting.

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📌 Summary

📉 Corn futures at the CBoT retreated further from recent highs, pressured by profit-taking and improved South American weather.🌎 The USDA's Outlook Forum this week will provide key insights into expected US planting acreage, which could set the tone for the market.📊 While export demand remains firm, traders are closely watching weather developments and fund positioning for further price direction.

🚜 Key Focus: USDA planting estimates & South American weather trends!

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