Ukrainian Corn Prices Continue to Climb Despite Stock Market Decline

Ukrainian corn prices have remained strong despite a downturn in global stock markets. Farmers are holding back sales, benefiting from rising offers from traders who have increased purchase prices by $10-15 per tonne in the past month. Lower freight and port handling costs have contributed to this price support, keeping the market firm.

Freight Costs Drop, Supporting Prices

The cost of transporting corn by Panamax vessels from Ukrainian ports to Southern China has fallen from $40-50 per tonne to $32-35 per tonne due to weaker import demand from China. This reduction in logistics costs has made Ukrainian corn more competitive in global markets.

Over the past week, corn prices at Black Sea ports have climbed, reaching $222-225 per tonne. This pricing now aligns with feed wheat and barley, further stabilizing the market.

Corn Exports Slow as Season Progresses

Corn exports from Ukraine have slowed in February, with shipments reaching 1.74 million tonnes in the first 24 days, down from 2.46 million tonnes in the same period last year. So far, in the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine has exported 14.13 million tonnes of corn, which is 9.2% lower than the 15.44 million tonnes exported in the same timeframe last season.

By the end of the season, Ukraine could still export an additional 9 million tonnes of grain. However, competition will increase, particularly with Argentina from April and Brazil from August, potentially affecting Ukrainian corn prices.

Freight Rates Surge as Demand for Shipping Grows

The Baltic Exchange's dry cargo freight index climbed 40 points on Friday, reaching a monthly high of 981 points, marking its seventh consecutive session of growth. The Panamax freight index, tracking vessels with a 60,000-70,000 tonne capacity, rose 26 points to 1,170 points, a three-month high. Meanwhile, the Supramax index, which tracks smaller vessels, gained 20 points to 886 points, continuing a 14-day rally.

Ukrainian Farmers Encouraged to Sell Before Prices Decline

With current corn prices at a high, Ukrainian farmers may want to accelerate sales while demand remains strong. European corn prices are relatively low, and increased sales from Argentina’s new harvest in March-April could limit demand for expensive Ukrainian corn in the coming months.

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