Rapeseed Recovers Losses – Stable Soybean Prices Amid Brazilian Export Decline
📈 Rapeseed Recovers Losses – Stable Soybean Prices Amid Brazilian Export Decline
📍 Rapeseed at Euronext regained ground on Tuesday, with the May contract rising €6.75 to €530.25/t after Monday’s decline. Soybeans at CBoT remained relatively stable, with the May contract closing at 1,048.75 ct/bu, a modest gain of 1.25 ct. Canola in Winnipeg saw slight losses, with the May contract slipping by 2.30 CAD to 657.00 CAD/t.📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- Stable U.S. Soybean Prices Amid Strong Exports 🚢→ U.S. weekly soybean export inspections reached 859,000 tons, up from 727,000 tons last week.→ However, they are still below last year’s level of 1.06 million tons.→ Cumulative U.S. soybean exports now exceed 35 million tons, compared to 31 million tons last year.
- Brazilian Soybean Exports Decline Sharply 📉→ Daily soybean exports fell by nearly 30% compared to February 2024.→ Brazil shipped 3.7 million tons so far in February, compared to 6.6 million tons last year.→ This is partly due to early-season harvest delays, but the harvest is now catching up.→ CONAB estimates 36% of the soybean crop has been harvested, compared to 38% last year.
- Weather Concerns Continue for South America ⛅→ Brazil: Heavy rains in central and northern regions may slow down soybean harvest and second-crop corn planting.→ Argentina: Widespread rainfall is expected in central & southern regions, benefiting late-stage crops.→ Northern Argentina remains hotter and drier than normal, with limited precipitation.
- Argentina Eases Waterway Regulations to Boost Grain Exports 🚢→ Argentina relaxed transport regulations for the Paraná-Paraguay waterway, a key grain corridor.→ Freight capacity could increase by 7%, reducing costs for exporters.→ 80% of Argentina’s agricultural exports are shipped via this route.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Favorable Rainfall for Crops
📍 Current Conditions:→ Drought stress easing in key growing regions.📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Normal, 25–32°C.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Frequent showers are expected in Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Santa Fe.
- 🚨 Impact: Could boost late-season crop conditions, helping to prevent further losses.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Supported by stable vegetable oil demand but facing pressure from improving supply in Canada.
- Resistance Level: €535/t
- Support Level: €520/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €525 – €532/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Steady U.S. exports support prices, but Brazil’s accelerating harvest could weigh on the market.
- Resistance Level: 1,060 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,040 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,045 – 1,055 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:- Rapeseed prices bounced back but remain range-bound amid vegetable oil price fluctuations.
- Soybeans hold steady as U.S. exports support prices, but Brazil’s accelerating harvest poses a risk.
- Canola in Canada faces downward pressure due to technical selling and speculative liquidation.
