🌽 Prices Decline for Fourth Consecutive Session – USDA Outlook Forum in Focus 📉

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📊 Market Overview

🔹 CBoT: Corn futures in Chicago declined for the fourth consecutive session. The most actively traded May contract fell by 0.75 ct to 493.5 ct/bu (185 EUR/t).🔹 Euronext: The corn market showed mixed movements, with the most traded June contract gaining 0.25 EUR to 220 EUR/t.

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

📌 1. USDA Outlook Forum – First 2025 Corn Acreage Projections

• The USDA will release its first projections for the 2025 corn crop at the Outlook Forum today.
• Market participants are closely watching early acreage estimates, which are expected to show an increase of 2.9 million acres to 93.5 million acres.
• Analyst estimates range between 92 to 95.1 million acres.
• The USDA’s projection is based on farmer surveys, and it could set the tone for market direction in the coming weeks.

📌 2. Uncertainty Over Tariffs on Canadian & Mexican Imports

• It remains unclear whether the U.S. will impose the planned 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports by March 4 or postpone the decision to April 2.
• Originally, President Trump had intended to raise tariffs in early February.
• Any implementation could disrupt North American trade flows, potentially impacting corn exports and feed demand.

📌 3. U.S. Ethanol Production & Stocks

• The weekly EIA report showed a drop in ethanol production for the week ending February 21:
  • Production fell by 3,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.081 million bpd.
  • However, ethanol stocks saw their largest weekly increase since January 2023, rising by 1.353 million barrels to 27.571 million barrels.
• A growing ethanol stockpile could indicate weaker demand or an oversupply situation, potentially affecting corn prices.

📌 4. USDA Export Report Expectations

• Export sales expectations for the week ending February 20:
  • Old crop: 900,000 – 1.65 million tons.
  • New crop: 0 – 100,000 tons.
• Traders will be closely monitoring this data to assess whether demand remains strong enough to support prices in the short term.

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📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)

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📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

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🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)

📍 Current Conditions: Some relief from rain, but concerns remain.📆 Next 14 Days:

• 🌧 Scattered rains continue, especially in central and southern regions.
• 🌡 Temperatures remain above average, particularly in the north.

🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)

📍 Current Conditions: Planting delays due to wet weather in Mato Grosso.📆 Next 14 Days:

• 🌧 Rain is expected to persist in northern & central regions, affecting soybean harvest.
• 🌤 Drier conditions in the south could allow planting progress.

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📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks

🛑 Since the start of our reporting, global corn stocks have declined by a total of 25.5 million tons!

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🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison

📊 Summary: Brazil continues steady growth, while Argentina faces drought-related losses.

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📌 Summary & Key Takeaways

✅ USDA Outlook Forum’s acreage estimate is a key event this week.✅ Uncertainty over U.S. tariffs on Canada & Mexico adds pressure.✅ South American weather remains a wildcard – rain in Argentina vs. wet delays in Brazil.✅ Corn futures face potential volatility as traders digest USDA data.

📢 Stay tuned for further updates on the USDA Outlook Forum & South American crop developments! 🚀

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