USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2025 – Key Takeaways
🌽 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2025 – Key Takeaways
📢 Overview
The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2025 began on February 27, 2025, under the theme "Meeting Tomorrow’s Challenges, Today."USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer presented the first official projections for the 2025/26 agricultural economy, commodity markets, and global trade trends.🔹 Key Highlights:
- Corn acreage is expected to increase to 93.6 million acres (+3.3% YoY).
- Soybean acreage is projected to decrease to 84.4 million acres, as large South American supplies pressure prices.
- Wheat acreage is set to rise to 47 million acres, driven mainly by increased winter wheat plantings.
🌾 Corn Production & Exports 2025/2026
📌 USDA Corn Forecasts:- Planted Area: 93.6 million acres (range: 92 – 95 million acres).
- Yield Projection: Trend yield of 181 bu/Ac, assuming normal weather conditions.
- Total Production: ~15.4 billion bushels (~390 million tons), up from 14.9 billion bushels in 2024.
- Ending Stocks: Expected to increase to 1.9 billion bushels, significantly higher than 1.54 billion bushels in 2024/25.
- Price Forecast: The average farm price for corn is projected at $3.90/bu, slightly lower than $4.10/bu last year, reflecting higher supply and stable demand.
📌 US Corn Exports:
- Declining Export Inspections:
- 1.134 million tons for the week ending February 20, down from 1.623 million tons the previous week.
- 12% lower than the same period in 2024.
- Competition & Global Demand:
- Brazil has surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest corn exporter.
- Ukraine’s ongoing conflict continues to disrupt Black Sea grain exports, altering global trade flows.
📊 U.S. Corn Export Trends (2021–2024)
The global corn trade has shifted significantly since 2021, with China drastically reducing imports, while Mexico, Japan, and Colombia have become stronger buyers.📌 Note: The 2024/2025 figure is an estimate based on current trends.
🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
📌 🇦🇷 Argentina:- Central regions (Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Santa Fe): Continued rainfall, potentially improving late-planted corn yields.
- Northern regions: Hot & dry conditions persist, with temperatures exceeding 35°C.
- Mato Grosso: Above-average rainfall is slowing the soybean harvest and delaying corn planting.
- Southeastern Brazil: Drier conditions could improve planting conditions.
📉 CBoT & Euronext Corn Futures
📌 CBoT Corn Futures
📌 Euronext Corn Futures
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
📌 Stock Levels (Since 2021)📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 25.5 million tons!
📌 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
📌 Summary & Market Outlook
📊 The USDA expects increased corn production in the U.S., declining prices, and rising ending stocks.🌎 Global exports are shifting – China is reducing imports, while Mexico & Japan are increasing purchases.📉 South American weather remains a key risk factor for yield projections.🔍 The potential U.S. tariff hike on Mexico & Canada (March 4) could disrupt trade flows.📢 Stay tuned for further updates on the USDA projections and global market developments! 🚀
