🌽 Corn Market Drops Sharply Amid Tariff Policy & Bearish USDA Projections 📉

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📊 Market Overview

🔹 CBoT: Corn futures in Chicago suffered heavy losses on Thursday, with the most-traded May contract plunging 12.5 ct to 481 ct/bu. New crop contracts also fell, but the losses were more moderate (-4 to -7.5 ct/bu).🔹 Euronext: European corn prices declined slightly, with the June contract slipping 0.75 EUR to 219.25 EUR/t.

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

📌 1. U.S. Tariff Policy Adds Pressure

• Corn, wheat, and soybeans all fell sharply as uncertainty over U.S. trade policy weighed on markets.
• The threat of a 25% import tariff on Canada and Mexico remains unresolved. If implemented, this could disrupt grain trade flows and impact feed demand in key importing countries.

📌 2. Bearish USDA Production Forecast

• The USDA Outlook Forum projected a record-breaking U.S. corn production of 15.585 billion bushels for 2025.
• This would exceed last year’s production of 14.867 billion bushels and break the previous record of 15.342 billion bushels from 2023.
• U.S. corn acreage is expected to rise to 94 million acres (+3.6 million acres YoY), higher than analysts' expectations of 93.5 million acres.
• Larger crops = bigger ending stocks: The USDA now expects 2025/26 ending stocks to swell to 1.965 billion bushels, up from 1.540 billion bushels last year.
• Market impact: Higher stocks and an expected surplus pressured prices, triggering speculative selling.

📌 3. Weak U.S. Export Sales

• USDA Weekly Export Report (Feb 20):
  • Total sales: 794,700 tons of corn for 2024/25.
  • This is 45% lower than last week and 47% below the 4-week average.
  • Market expectations were 900,000 – 1.65 million tons, meaning sales came in below forecasts.

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📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)

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📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

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🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)

📍 Current Conditions: Some rainfall relief, but dryness remains a concern.📆 Next 14 Days:

• 🌧 More rainfall expected in central & southern regions, potentially boosting late-planted crops.
• 🌡 Northern areas remain hot & dry, with temperatures exceeding 35°C.

🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)

📍 Current Conditions: Rain slowing soybean harvest, delaying Safrinha planting.📆 Next 14 Days:

• 🌧 Rainfall expected to continue in northern regions, while southern Brazil stays drier.

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📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks

📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 25.5 million tons!

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🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison

📊 Summary: Brazil is continuing steady growth, while Argentina faces drought-related losses.

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📌 Summary & Market Outlook

📊 USDA Outlook Forum’s forecast for record U.S. corn production triggered strong selling pressure.🌎 South American weather remains a key risk factor, with Brazil facing rain delays & Argentina struggling with heat.📉 Weak U.S. export demand & the potential 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico add uncertainty.🔍 Corn futures likely to remain volatile in the coming days, driven by market reactions to USDA data.

📢 Stay tuned for further updates on USDA trade policies & South American crop developments! 🚀