📊 Sunflower Market Under Pressure – Price Differences Between Origins Grow

As of February 28, 2025

---

🔹 1. Headline & Teaser

📉 Sunflower Kernels: FCA Prices Stable, but Logistics Costs for Ukraine Shipments Increase📍 Prices for hulled sunflower kernels remain stable, but there are significant price differences between origins. Ukrainian products are cheaper (FCA 1.12 EUR/kg), but long border wait times increase logistics costs. The persistently high demand for hulled sunflower kernels could lead to further price increases in the coming weeks.

---

📊 2. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Developments (SAFEX – ZAR/t)

📌 Analysis:

• May 25 shows the highest price increase (+0.74%) – a sign of continued strong demand.
• March 25 drops by -0.67%, possibly due to short-term profit-taking.
• Long-term contracts remain stable, as uncertainties about the next harvest persist.

---

🌍 3. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📦 Price Differences Between Origins

📌 Why Are Ukrainian Prices Lower?

• FCA prices from Ukraine are the lowest, but long border wait times increase logistics costs.
• Bulgaria must import unhulled sunflower seeds, raising the overall cost of hulled kernels.
• Moldova remains stable, but with limited export volumes.

🔹 🌾 Low Oil Yield Intensifies Supply Shortages

• Lower oil content means higher raw material consumption for oil production.
• Processing is concentrated in the first half of the year, leading to potential shortages later in 2025.

🔹 📉 Geopolitical Risk in Ukraine Remains High

• Fulfilling contracts is uncertain, as the political situation remains unstable.
• Risk premiums may rise if the situation worsens.

---

🔮 4. Market Forecast (Next 3 Days)

📉 Price Forecast for Hulled Sunflower Kernels:

• FCA Ukraine: 1.11 – 1.13 EUR/kg
• FCA Moldova: 1.12 – 1.14 EUR/kg
• FCA Bulgaria: 1.24 – 1.27 EUR/kg

📌 Forecast Factors:

• High demand from the bakery industry continues.
• Slow logistics from Ukraine may lead to short-term delivery bottlenecks.
• Better weather conditions could bring medium-term relief.

---

⛅ 5. 14-Day Weather Trend

🇺🇦 Ukraine:

• 🌡️ Temperatures rising to -2°C to +5°C → No immediate frost risk for stockpiles.
• 🌧️ Light rain expected in southern Ukraine → Minimal impact on future harvests.

🇧🇬 Bulgaria:

• 🌡️ Mild climate between 5–10°C, but dryness could impact planting.
• 🌬️ Light winds, no extreme weather events expected.

📌 Conclusion: No immediate weather impact on pricing.

---

📉 6. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

📍 Global Ending Stocks (Million Tons)

📍 Production & Forecasts

📌 Analysis:

• Stock levels are declining long-term.
• Argentina shows the largest production drop (-6.1%), which may further tighten the market.

---

🔍 7. Conclusion & Recommendations

📌 Summary:

• Ukrainian sunflower kernels remain price-competitive, but logistics remain a challenge.
• Bulgarian kernels remain expensive due to import dependency.
• Supply shortages may worsen later in the year.

📌 Recommendations:✔ Buyers: Secure positions early before further price increases occur.✔ Traders: Take advantage of FCA-Ukraine price advantages, but factor in logistics risks.✔ Producers: Carefully calculate stock levels to capitalize on potential shortages.

📌 Market Outlook:📈 Further price increases possible, especially for hulled kernels.⏳ Weather remains stable in the short term, but geopolitical risks persist.