Rapeseed and Canola Decline Amid Trade Uncertainty and Weak Soybean Prices
📉 Rapeseed and Canola Decline Amid Trade Uncertainty and Weak Soybean Prices
📍 Euronext rapeseed futures ended the week lower, with the May contract falling €5.25 to €532.75/t, though the weekly balance remained positive at +€2.50 (0.5%). Soybean futures at CBoT also weakened, with the May soybean contract dropping 11.5 ct to 1,025.75 ct/bu (363 EUR/t). Canola in Winnipeg extended its losses, with the May contract dropping 7.00 CAD to 651.10 CAD/t, amid ongoing concerns over U.S. trade tariffs.📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- Profit-Taking Pressures Rapeseed and Soybeans 📉→ Traders adjusted positions ahead of the weekend and month-end, triggering selling pressure.
- Trade Tariff Speculation Weighs on Canola and Soybeans 🇺🇸📉→ Concerns over potential new U.S. tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China in early March pressured commodity markets.→ The ICE Canola May contract dropped 7 CAD to 651.10 CAD/t, extending its weekly loss to 28.60 CAD (4.2%).
- Funds Reduce Long Positions in Wheat & Soybeans 📉→ The CFTC report showed that funds reduced net-long positions in CBOT wheat futures by 8,317 contracts to just 8,209 contracts.→ Additional sales from Wednesday to Friday suggest funds are now net short, betting on further price declines.
- Malaysian Palm Oil Sees First Monthly Gain in Three Months 🌿→ Palm oil futures posted a 5.2% monthly gain, despite a weekly loss of 3.3%.→ Weaker Indian demand capped upside momentum, as India shifted to cheaper sunflower and soybean oil imports.
- Crude Oil Weakness Adds Pressure to Vegetable Oils 🛢️📉→ Weaker crude oil prices dampened vegetable oil sentiment.→ A stronger U.S. dollar and weak U.S. economic data raised concerns about declining energy demand.→ Reports of potential U.S.-Russia peace talks fueled speculation about sanctions easing, which could increase Russian oil supply.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Widespread Rain Expected
📍 Current Conditions:→ Drought stress easing as rain moves into key soybean-growing areas.📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Moderate, between 23–30°C.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Widespread showers expected across Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Santa Fe.
- 🚨 Impact: Expected to stabilize late-season crops and support yields.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Profit-taking and weaker soybean oil prices could weigh, but strong palm oil and vegetable oil markets provide support.
- Resistance Level: €540/t
- Support Level: €525/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €528 – €535/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Trade tariff concerns and strong Brazilian exports could continue to pressure prices.
- Resistance Level: 1,035 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,015 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,020 – 1,030 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:- Rapeseed and canola markets declined as funds liquidated long positions.
- Soybeans remain under pressure due to Brazilian export strength and trade tariff uncertainty.
- Palm oil’s monthly gain suggests ongoing vegetable oil market strength, despite weaker demand in India.
