🌽 Corn Market Plummets Amid USDA Forecasts & Speculative Selling 📉

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📊 Market Overview

🔹 CBoT: The front-month May contract plunged 11.5 ct to 469.5 ct/bu (178 EUR/t) on Friday, bringing the weekly loss to 35.5 ct (-7.0%).🔹 Euronext: European corn futures found support from a weaker euro and wheat price recovery, with March 2025 and November 2025 contracts gaining slightly. However, the most traded June contract fell 2 EUR to 217.25 EUR/t, marking a weekly loss of 6 EUR (-2.7%).

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

📌 1. USDA Corn Forecasts Trigger Sell-Off

• USDA’s 2025 corn production estimate:
  • Expected at 15.585 billion bushels, surpassing last year’s 14.867 billion bushels and breaking the previous record of 15.342 billion bushels (2023).
  • Planted acreage: Forecasted at 94 million acres, higher than analysts' expectations of 93.5 million acres.
  • Impact: A record crop would drive U.S. ending stocks to 1.965 billion bushels, up from 1.540 billion bushels in 2024/25.
  • Market reaction: Increased supply expectations led to heavy selling and a sharp price decline.

📌 2. Speculative Funds Reducing Long Positions

• The CFTC report showed that hedge funds and speculative traders cut net-long positions in CBOT corn by 16,079 contracts, bringing total long positions to 337,454 contracts.
• Market impact: A liquidation of long positions accelerated price declines as traders adjusted to bearish USDA projections.

📌 3. Weak U.S. Export Sales

• USDA Weekly Export Report (Feb 20):
  • Total corn sales: 794,700 tons for 2024/25.
  • This is 45% lower than last week and 47% below the 4-week average.
  • Expectations ranged from 900,000 to 1.65 million tons, meaning sales came in below forecasts.
• Market impact: Weak export demand added additional downward pressure on prices.

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📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)

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📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

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🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)

📍 Current Conditions: Some rainfall relief, but overall dryness remains.📆 Next 14 Days:

• 🌧 More rainfall expected in central & southern regions, beneficial for late-planted corn.
• 🌡 Northern areas remain hot & dry, with temperatures exceeding 35°C.

🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)

📍 Current Conditions: Rain delays soybean harvest, impacting second-crop corn planting.📆 Next 14 Days:

• 🌧 Rainfall expected in central regions, while southern Brazil remains dry.

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📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks

📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 25.5 million tons!

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🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison

📊 Summary: Brazil is continuing steady growth, while Argentina faces drought-related losses.

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📌 Summary & Market Outlook

📊 USDA's record corn production forecast triggered aggressive selling, driving prices lower.🌎 South American weather remains a major factor, with rain delaying planting in Brazil & heat stress in Argentina.📉 Weak U.S. export demand & hedge fund liquidations intensified losses.🔍 Corn futures likely to stay volatile, with a short-term bearish bias.

📢 Stay updated for further market insights! 🚀