Market Leader Steps Back, Prices Drop
📉 Market Leader Steps Back, Prices Drop 📉
📍 The Turkish hazelnut market has entered a corrective phase, with the market leader announcing it has covered its needs for the season. This has led to a price decline, particularly for small-caliber kernels, which are now significantly cheaper than standard-sized hazelnuts (11-13 mm). Additionally, TMO stocks from the 2022 harvest are now on the market, further pressuring prices.📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
🔹 Key Developments:✅ Market leader announces it is fully covered for the season, reducing demand pressure.✅ Over-supply of small kernels leads to significant price drops.✅ TMO stocks from 2022 now entering the market, creating additional downward price pressure.✅ Conflicting reports on frost damage in lower-altitude orchards (< 400 m).✅ Exchange rate stable, awaiting the next Turkish Central Bank policy meeting next week.
🌍 Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
🔹 Market Leader Steps Back- The market leader has announced it is fully covered for this season.
- This led to a shift in supplier behavior, with some now accepting lower prices to clear stocks.
- Small kernels are significantly cheaper than 11-13 mm kernels, creating one of the largest price gaps seen in years.
- TMO’s older 2022 stock is now available, further pressuring prices for small-caliber kernels.
- Many buyers are now reluctant to take long positions on these products.
- While frost and snow hit the Black Sea region last week, early reports contradict each other on whether damage has occurred in lower-altitude orchards.
- If damage reports escalate, prices could rebound quickly.
- While prices for small-caliber kernels and hazelnut paste are declining, whole natural and roasted kernels remain relatively stable.
- Buyers are cautious, hesitant to take positions until market direction is clearer.
🔮 Market Forecast (Next 3 Days)
📉 Expected Price Trends:- 11-13 mm raw kernels: Likely stable, range: 8.00 – 8.10 €/kg.
- Small-caliber kernels & processed products: Likely to decline further, as demand remains weak.
- Potential short-term upside if frost speculation intensifies.
⛅ Weather Trend (Next 14 Days)
🇹🇷 Turkey – Black Sea Hazelnut Growing Regions📍 Current:❄️ Cold temperatures (-3°C to -10°C) have persisted, but frost damage remains uncertain.🌡️ Daytime temperatures slowly rising, but nights remain cold.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):
- 🌡️ Temperatures to increase slightly, averaging 5-12°C.
- 🌧️ Rain expected after March 7, reducing frost risk.
- No extreme weather expected beyond mid-March.
📉 Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
📍 Global Hazelnut Ending Stocks (Last 4 Years):📍 Turkish Hazelnut Production & Forecast:
🔹 Takeaways:
- Global stocks continue to decline, supporting long-term price stability.
- Turkey’s production trend remains slightly downward, reinforcing supply concerns.
🔍 Key Takeaways & Market Recommendations
📌 Summary:✔️ Market leader withdrawal signals reduced short-term demand pressure.✔️ Oversupply of small kernels and TMO stocks driving price declines.✔️ Whole kernels remain firm, creating a segmented market.✔️ Frost concerns could cause sudden price reversals.📈 Strategic Outlook:➡️ Short-term: Prices for small kernels and processed products could decline further.➡️ Medium-term: If frost reports escalate, a price rebound is possible.➡️ Long-term: Lower global stocks will keep the market fundamentally supported.
🔍 Actionable Insights:💡 Buyers:
- Take advantage of lower small-kernel and paste prices.
- Monitor frost damage reports carefully before committing to larger purchases.
- Holding whole kernels may be profitable, but small kernels are under pressure.
- TMO’s continued sales could keep prices depressed in the coming months.
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