Rapeseed and Canola Prices Remain Volatile with Tariff Concerns in Focus

The rapeseed and canola markets are seeing unpredictable price movements as traders react to potential tariff changes between the US and Canada and shifts in global supply. Concerns over a rising soybean surplus are also adding pressure to market prices.

European Rapeseed Market Sees Price Swings

On the Paris exchange, May rapeseed futures rose by 1,1% last Thursday but dropped by the same margin on Friday after former US President Donald Trump made controversial comments about tariffs on Canadian goods. Despite the volatility, futures managed a 0,5% increase for the week, closing at €532,75 per tonne (USD 0,56 per kg). Speculative fund buying supported prices, although EU oil mills continue to struggle with negative margins and weak oil sales due to falling global oil prices.

New Crop Rapeseed Prices Show Promise

Prices for the new crop in August increased by 2,6%, reaching €498,5 per tonne (USD 0,50 per kg) in February. Expectations for higher EU production in 2025 contributed to the rise. While France might see a decrease in the sown area, Eastern Europe and Germany are set for gains, with Germany's area increasing to 1,1 million hectares. Meanwhile, the UK is likely to record its smallest rapeseed crop in 42 years.

Canadian Canola Prices Decline Sharply

The Canadian canola market experienced a downturn on the Winnipeg exchange last week:

• March futures dropped by 5,5% to CAD 635 per tonne (USD 0,44 per kg).
• May futures fell by 4,5% to CAD 651 per tonne (USD 0,45 per kg).
• November new crop futures decreased by 3,9% to CAD 642 per tonne (USD 0,44 per kg).

A weaker Canadian dollar against the US dollar and declining canola prices have widened the price gap between rapeseed and canola from USD 0,07–0,08 per kg to USD 0,12 per kg. This shift might boost canola exports from Canada to the EU.

Ukraine’s Rapeseed Production and Price Outlook

In Ukraine, frost affected rapeseed crops, particularly in fields without snow cover. However, recent rainfall has helped improve soil moisture. The area sown with rapeseed for the 2025 harvest is down by 130,000 hectares, which could reduce production from 3,75 million tonnes (mt) to 3,2–3,5 mt. This likely decrease in supply could keep prices strong for the upcoming harvest.

Current and Forward Prices for Ukrainian Rapeseed Remain Stable

Purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukrainian ports are holding steady at 25,000–25,500 UAH per tonne (USD 0,53–0,54 per kg), while forward prices are about USD 0,50 per kg. The market is closely watching for the potential introduction of reciprocal tariffs between the US and Canada, which could influence canola and soybean oil prices.

Tariff Developments and Crop Yields Could Influence Prices

The rapeseed and canola markets are on edge as traders anticipate potential tariff actions and assess supply trends. With mixed production signals from the EU and Canada and a likely drop in Ukrainian output, price fluctuations could continue in the near term. Market participants remain vigilant, ready to respond to rapid changes in the market landscape.

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