Soybeans and Rapeseed Under Pressure – Trade Tariff Concerns Weigh on Markets
📉 Soybeans and Rapeseed Under Pressure – Trade Tariff Concerns Weigh on Markets
📍 Soybean futures at CBoT saw sharp losses on Monday, with the May contract dropping 14.25 ct to 1,011.5 ct/bu. Soybean meal and soybean oil also closed lower. Euronext rapeseed ended mixed, with the May contract down €5.50 to €527.25/t, while the August contract remained unchanged. Canola in Winnipeg declined, as higher U.S. tariffs threatened Canadian oilseed exports.📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- U.S. Tariff Hike on China, Canada, and Mexico Sparks Sell-Off 🇺🇸📉→ President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico starting Tuesday.→ In response, China announced countermeasures, likely targeting U.S. agricultural exports.→ Soybean futures extended losses in early Tuesday trading.
- Canola Futures Drop as Tariffs Threaten Exports 📉→ ICE Canola ended lower as traders feared higher U.S. tariffs would hurt Canadian Canola oil exports.→ The May Canola contract dropped 5.20 CAD to 645.90 CAD/t.
- Australian Rapeseed Production Revised Higher 🌾→ ABARES raised its 2024/25 rapeseed forecast by 300,000 tons to 5.9 MMT.→ The first estimate for the 2025/26 crop stands at 6.0 MMT, well above the long-term average.
- U.S. Soybean Processing Data & Stock Levels 📈→ The Fats & Oils Report showed 212.5 million bushels of soybeans processed in January, down 2.4% from December, but 9.4% higher year-on-year.→ Soybean oil stocks rose by 3.1% to 2.09 billion lbs, indicating slower demand growth.
- U.S. Weekly Export Data Shows Weak Soybean Shipments 🚢→ USDA reported soybean exports at 695,158 tons for the week ending February 27, within analyst expectations of 950,000 – 1.4 million tons.→ However, shipments were down 20.9% from the previous week and 40.1% lower year-on-year.→ Cumulative U.S. soybean exports for the 2024/25 season stand at 37.59 MMT, up 9.6% from last year.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Widespread Rain Expected
📍 Current Conditions:→ Drought stress remains, but rain expected across key growing regions.📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Cooling slightly, 22–30°C.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Regular showers expected in Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Santa Fe.
- 🚨 Impact: Improved soil moisture could stabilize late-season yields.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Pressured by U.S. tariff concerns and weaker soybean oil prices.
- Resistance Level: €535/t
- Support Level: €520/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €523 – €532/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Further downside risk due to trade uncertainty and improving Argentine weather.
- Resistance Level: 1,030 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,000 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,005 – 1,025 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:- Soybeans and Canola declined on tariff fears, while rapeseed remained resilient.
- China’s countermeasures could directly impact U.S. soybean exports.
- Argentine weather remains a key variable, with rain providing potential support for yields.