Falling Global Soybean Prices Impact Ukrainian Market

Global soybean prices are under pressure due to the US-China trade war and a strong harvest in Brazil. This decline is affecting purchasing prices for soybeans and soybean meal in Ukraine, especially amid weak export demand.

Key Market Drivers: US-China Tariffs and Brazilian Harvest

The US imposed a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, prompting China to suspend imports from three US agricultural companies and impose a 10% tariff on US soybean imports. Currently, 1.569 million tonnes of US soybeans remain unsent to China, adding to market uncertainty.

Brazil's harvest progress has also influenced prices. As of February 27, 2025, 50% of soybeans had been harvested, 2% more than last year. The state of Mato Grosso is nearly finished, while Rio Grande do Sul faces reduced yields due to drought.

In Chicago, March soybean futures dropped 4.7% to USD 0,36 per kg, and November futures also fell 4.7% to USD 0,37 per kg. These declines reflect the combined impact of tariffs, supply growth, and anticipated acreage reductions in the US.

Ukrainian Soybean Market Trends

In Ukraine, GMO soybean export prices decreased to USD 0,38 per kg, while non-GMO soybeans remained stable at USD 0,42 per kg. Traders are completing export batches and slowing purchases. Due to difficulties in selling soybean meal, processors reduced GMO soybean purchase prices by 300–500 UAH/t, with new prices ranging from 17,200–17,600 UAH/t.

Soybean Market Prices and Trends

Conclusion: Continued Market Pressure Likely

The combination of global price drops, a strong Brazilian harvest, and US-China trade tensions is expected to maintain pressure on Ukrainian soybean prices. The anticipated arrival of 230 million tonnes of South American soybeans in March-April may further impact market stability, particularly in the oilseed sector.