Ukrainian Corn Prices Decline Due Falling Global Market

Corn prices in Ukraine have decreased by USD 0,005-0,008 per kg, influenced by global market conditions, including a robust soybean harvest in Brazil and ongoing US tariff disputes. The purchasing prices for corn in Ukrainian Black Sea ports dropped to USD 0,215-0,217 per kg, reflecting a UAH 200-300 per tonne decrease within a week.

Global Factors Driving Corn Price Decline

Brazil's accelerated soybean harvest is raising freight costs while boosting the supply of second-crop corn. As of February 27, 80% of the planned second-crop corn area was planted, supported by favorable weather conditions, keeping harvest forecasts strong. Additionally, the US-China trade war, including China's 10% mirror duty on US corn and export bans on 15 American companies, is reshaping global grain trade dynamics.

March corn futures on the CBOT exchange in Chicago slightly recovered by 0.9% to USD 0,17 per kg, despite a 12.5% decline over the past month. Meanwhile, June corn futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris fell by 3.9% to USD 0,23 per kg, which could limit demand for more expensive Ukrainian corn.

Ukraine's Corn Export Performance

According to the State Customs Service, Ukrainian corn market exported 14.924 million tonnes of corn in the 2024/25 MY (as of March 5), down 11% from 16.569 million tonnes in the previous year. With the season ongoing, Ukraine could potentially export an additional 7-8 million tonnes.

Table: Corn Market Prices and Export Trends

Conclusion: Limited Opportunities Amid Global Competition

While Ukrainian corn remains competitive in the EU, strong competition from the US, Brazil, and Canada could limit growth in export volumes. With EU corn imports expected to reach 19.5 million tonnes this season, Ukraine must accelerate deliveries to maintain its market share, particularly as Brazilian corn won't enter the market until August.