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Rapeseed Falls Below โ‚ฌ500 โ€“ Canola Rebounds Slightly, Soybeans Recover

Rapeseed Falls Below โ‚ฌ500 โ€“ Canola Rebounds Slightly, Soybeans Recover

๐Ÿ“‰ Rapeseed Falls Below โ‚ฌ500 โ€“ Canola Rebounds Slightly, Soybeans Recover

๐Ÿ“ย ย Euronext rapeseed futures extended their losses on Wednesday, with the May contract dropping โ‚ฌ11.50 to โ‚ฌ499.50/t, marking a two-month low. The sharp decline was fueled by fund selling and overall commodity weakness, although some analysts see the market as oversold. Meanwhile, CBoT soybeans rebounded, with the May contract gaining 12.75 ct to 1,011.75 ct/bu (โ‚ฌ344/t), while Canola in Winnipeg recovered slightly, amid speculation that U.S. tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil may be short-lived or reduced.




๐Ÿ“Š 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends

๐ŸŒ CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) โ€“ Soybeans & Products

๐Ÿ“‰ Euronext (MATIF) โ€“ Rapeseed Futures

๐Ÿ“Œ ICECA (Winnipeg) โ€“ Canola Futures




๐ŸŒ 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

๐Ÿ“Œ Key Market Developments

  • Euronext Rapeseed Falls Below โ‚ฌ500 for the First Time in 3.5 Months ๐Ÿ“‰โ†’ The May contract closed below the โ‚ฌ500 mark, signaling a bearish trend.โ†’ Traders see rapeseed as oversold, with potential for stabilization as palm oil and canola markets recover.
  • Canola Recovers Slightly on Hopes of Reduced U.S. Tariffs ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ˆโ†’ ICE Canola futures rebounded, driven by optimism that U.S. tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil may not last long or could be reduced.โ†’ May Canola closed at 634.60 CAD/t (โ‚ฌ432/t), up 2.10 CAD.
  • Palm Oil Rebounds After Consecutive Losses ๐ŸŒฟโ†’ Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Wednesday after two days of declines.โ†’ Supported by rising soybean oil prices in Chicago, traders are awaiting new supply data from Malaysiaโ€™s MPOB next Monday.
  • Brazilโ€™s Soybean Crop Estimate Lowered by Celeres ๐ŸŒฑโ†’ Consulting firm Celeres cut its 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 2.4 MMT to 171.6 MMT.โ†’ Despite the reduction, Brazil is still expected to export 107 MMT, up from 98.8 MMT last year.โ†’ Domestic soybean crushing is forecast to rise from 54 MMT to 56.5 MMT.
  • Funds Expected to Reduce Long Positions in Rapeseed ๐Ÿ“‰โ†’ Financial investors at Euronext increased net-long positions from 58,105 to 63,178 contracts last week.โ†’ Given the sharp sell-off, net-long positions could decline significantly in the coming days.
  • USDA Weekly Export Report Due Today ๐Ÿšขโ†’ Expected soybean sales for the week ending February 27:
    • Old crop: 300,000 โ€“ 550,000 t
    • New crop: 0 โ€“ 50,000 tโ†’ Soybean meal sales expected at 150,000 โ€“ 420,000 t, soybean oil at 20,000 โ€“ 45,000 t.





โ›… 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina: Weather Improvements Support Crop Outlook

๐Ÿ“ Current Conditions:โ†’ Soil moisture improving in key growing areas.

๐Ÿ“† 14-Day Outlook:
  • ๐ŸŒก๏ธ Temperatures: 22โ€“30ยฐC, slightly below normal.
  • ๐ŸŒง๏ธ Rainfall: Continued showers expected across Buenos Aires, Cรณrdoba, and Santa Fe.
  • ๐Ÿšจ Impact: Favorable for late-season soybean growth and yield potential.





๐Ÿ”ฎ 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days

๐Ÿ“‰ Rapeseed (Euronext)

  • Trend: Still under pressure, but may stabilize if canola and palm oil sustain gains.
  • Resistance Level: โ‚ฌ510/t
  • Support Level: โ‚ฌ490/t
  • ๐Ÿ“Š Expected Range: โ‚ฌ495 โ€“ โ‚ฌ505/t

๐Ÿ“‰ Soybeans (CBoT)

  • Trend: Moderate recovery likely, driven by fund positioning and technical support levels.
  • Resistance Level: 1,025 ct/bu
  • Support Level: 995 ct/bu
  • ๐Ÿ“Š Expected Range: 1,000 โ€“ 1,015 ct/bu





๐Ÿ“‰ 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production






๐Ÿ” 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations

๐Ÿ“‰ Market Insights:
  • Rapeseed fell below โ‚ฌ500 for the first time in months, but downside may be limited.
  • Canola rebounded slightly on hopes of softened U.S. tariffs.
  • Palm oil and soybean oil demand are key factors to watch.
๐Ÿ”ฎ Market remains volatile โ€“ focus on South American crop conditions and potential shifts in U.S. trade policy.
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