
Rapeseed Falls Below โฌ500 โ Canola Rebounds Slightly, Soybeans Recover
๐ Rapeseed Falls Below โฌ500 โ Canola Rebounds Slightly, Soybeans Recover
๐ย ย Euronext rapeseed futures extended their losses on Wednesday, with the May contract dropping โฌ11.50 to โฌ499.50/t, marking a two-month low. The sharp decline was fueled by fund selling and overall commodity weakness, although some analysts see the market as oversold. Meanwhile, CBoT soybeans rebounded, with the May contract gaining 12.75 ct to 1,011.75 ct/bu (โฌ344/t), while Canola in Winnipeg recovered slightly, amid speculation that U.S. tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil may be short-lived or reduced.๐ 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
๐ CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) โ Soybeans & Products
๐ Euronext (MATIF) โ Rapeseed Futures
๐ ICECA (Winnipeg) โ Canola Futures
๐ 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
๐ Key Market Developments
- Euronext Rapeseed Falls Below โฌ500 for the First Time in 3.5 Months ๐โ The May contract closed below the โฌ500 mark, signaling a bearish trend.โ Traders see rapeseed as oversold, with potential for stabilization as palm oil and canola markets recover.
- Canola Recovers Slightly on Hopes of Reduced U.S. Tariffs ๐บ๐ธ๐โ ICE Canola futures rebounded, driven by optimism that U.S. tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil may not last long or could be reduced.โ May Canola closed at 634.60 CAD/t (โฌ432/t), up 2.10 CAD.
- Palm Oil Rebounds After Consecutive Losses ๐ฟโ Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Wednesday after two days of declines.โ Supported by rising soybean oil prices in Chicago, traders are awaiting new supply data from Malaysiaโs MPOB next Monday.
- Brazilโs Soybean Crop Estimate Lowered by Celeres ๐ฑโ Consulting firm Celeres cut its 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 2.4 MMT to 171.6 MMT.โ Despite the reduction, Brazil is still expected to export 107 MMT, up from 98.8 MMT last year.โ Domestic soybean crushing is forecast to rise from 54 MMT to 56.5 MMT.
- Funds Expected to Reduce Long Positions in Rapeseed ๐โ Financial investors at Euronext increased net-long positions from 58,105 to 63,178 contracts last week.โ Given the sharp sell-off, net-long positions could decline significantly in the coming days.
- USDA Weekly Export Report Due Today ๐ขโ Expected soybean sales for the week ending February 27:
- Old crop: 300,000 โ 550,000 t
- New crop: 0 โ 50,000 tโ Soybean meal sales expected at 150,000 โ 420,000 t, soybean oil at 20,000 โ 45,000 t.
โ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina: Weather Improvements Support Crop Outlook
๐ Current Conditions:โ Soil moisture improving in key growing areas.๐ 14-Day Outlook:
- ๐ก๏ธ Temperatures: 22โ30ยฐC, slightly below normal.
- ๐ง๏ธ Rainfall: Continued showers expected across Buenos Aires, Cรณrdoba, and Santa Fe.
- ๐จ Impact: Favorable for late-season soybean growth and yield potential.
๐ฎ 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
๐ Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Still under pressure, but may stabilize if canola and palm oil sustain gains.
- Resistance Level: โฌ510/t
- Support Level: โฌ490/t
- ๐ Expected Range: โฌ495 โ โฌ505/t
๐ Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Moderate recovery likely, driven by fund positioning and technical support levels.
- Resistance Level: 1,025 ct/bu
- Support Level: 995 ct/bu
- ๐ Expected Range: 1,000 โ 1,015 ct/bu
๐ 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
๐ 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
๐ Market Insights:- Rapeseed fell below โฌ500 for the first time in months, but downside may be limited.
- Canola rebounded slightly on hopes of softened U.S. tariffs.
- Palm oil and soybean oil demand are key factors to watch.
