China Wheat Harvest - Expands Grain Reserves for 2025

China wheat harvest has plans for growth in current year. It has set a high grain production target of 700 million tonnes for 2025, raising its reserve budget by 6.1% to USD 18.12 billion to strengthen food security. The country also allocated USD 7.04 billion for insurance premiums to support farmers. These steps come as China prepares for potential trade conflicts and aims to secure its agricultural supply chain.

Record-Breaking Wheat Production on the Horizon

In 2024, China achieved a record grain harvest of 706.5 million tonnes, exceeding its initial goal of 650 million tonnes. Wheat production also reached new heights, increasing by 2.6% compared to the previous year to 140.1 million tonnes. This growth allowed China to cut wheat imports by 7.4%, bringing them down to 11.18 million tonnes.

For 2025, China expects another record wheat crop, with nearly 90% of the production being winter wheat. Favorable weather conditions are likely to reduce the need for imports further.

Adjustments in Import Strategies and Trade Policies

The country's trade policies reflect rising geopolitical tensions. Recently, China delayed the import of 600,000 tonnes of wheat, mainly from Australia, and raised duties on USD 21 billion worth of US agricultural products in response to new tariffs from the Trump administration.

The reduced wheat imports, coupled with low demand for barley and sorghum, are affecting global grain markets. However, experts believe that Chinese demand might pick up in the second quarter of 2025, which could help stabilize international prices.

Key Figures in China's Grain Market

What to Expect in the Wheat Market

With strong domestic wheat production and increased reserves, China may continue reducing its dependence on imports, especially from nations involved in trade disputes. The agricultural market will be watching closely how these developments influence global grain and vegetable oil markets in the months ahead.