Rapeseed Rebounds as U.S. Suspends Tariffs – Soybeans and Canola Gain
📈 Rapeseed Rebounds Briefly but Ends the Week Lower – Soybeans and Canola Under Pressure
📍 Euronext rapeseed futures saw a temporary recovery on Thursday, with the May contract rising by €4 to €503.50/t. However, Friday’s session reversed these gains, with the contract closing at €495.75/t, marking a weekly loss of €7.75 (1.5%). Soybean futures at CBoT also faced renewed selling pressure, with the May contract closing at 1,011.75 ct/bu (€344/t) on Thursday before sliding back on Friday. Canola in Winnipeg followed a similar pattern, initially rising as the May contract gained 10.40 CAD to 645.00 CAD/t (€439/t) on Thursday but ending the week lower.The temporary suspension of U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports until April 2 provided short-term relief, helping markets recover mid-week. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policy, a stronger euro, and Brazil’s expanding soybean exports continue to weigh on the oilseed markets.
📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- U.S. Suspends Tariffs on Canada & Mexico Until April 2 🇺🇸📈→ Temporary suspension of tariffs boosted market sentiment, leading to mid-week gains.→ However, uncertainty remains as traders await further policy clarity from the U.S. government.
- Palm Oil Prices Recover, Supporting Vegetable Oils 🌿→ Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded on Thursday following losses earlier in the week.→ Stronger soybean oil prices in Chicago and Dalian supported the rally.
- China’s Soybean Imports Rise, but U.S. Shipments Set to Decline 🇨🇳→ China imported 13.61 million tons of soybeans in January-February, up 4.4% year-on-year.→ Despite strong U.S. purchases last year, Brazil is now the primary supplier.→ China is also pushing to expand domestic soybean production and reduce reliance on imports.
- Brazil’s Soybean Exports Set for Strong March 🚢→ Brazilian export association ANEC forecasts soybean exports at 14.8 million tons in March, up 1.3 million tons from March 2024.→ Shipments are accelerating due to the country’s record harvest.
- USDA Export Report Shows Strong Soybean Oil Demand 📈→ Soybean oil sales of 54,800 tons exceeded expectations (20,000 – 45,000 tons).→ Soybean meal sales reached 236,600 tons, up 34% from the previous week.→ Total U.S. soybean export commitments for 2024/25 now stand at 44.39 million tons, up from 39.29 million tons a year ago.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Continued Rain Improves Crop Conditions
📍 Current Conditions:→ Soil moisture continues to improve in key growing areas.📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: 22–30°C, within normal seasonal ranges.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Frequent showers expected across Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Santa Fe.
- 🚨 Impact: Favorable conditions should support late-season soybean growth and stabilize yield expectations.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Uncertainty over trade policies and currency fluctuations may limit recovery.
- Resistance Level: €510/t
- Support Level: €485/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €490 – €505/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Potential for further declines if Brazilian exports remain strong.
- Resistance Level: 1,030 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,000 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,010 – 1,025 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:- Rapeseed briefly recovered but remains under pressure due to currency strength and trade concerns.
- Soybeans showed mid-week gains, but Brazil’s record harvest and export pace could weigh on prices.
- Canola gained initially but ended the week lower as uncertainty over tariffs persists.
