📉 Turkish Hazelnut Market – Prices Stabilizing, Export Prices Drop Due to Currency Shift 📉

📍 The Turkish hazelnut market stabilized this week after the sharp declines of the previous week. While demand remains low, export prices fell significantly due to a stronger Euro, driven by new economic stimulus plans in the EU. Frost damage reports remain localized, and the market has largely ignored these concerns for now.

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📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments

🔹 Key Developments:✅ Hazelnut prices stabilize after last week's sharp drop.✅ Export prices decline further due to the stronger Euro.✅ Turkish Central Bank & ECB lower interest rates, impacting FX markets.✅ Reports of frost damage in some regions, but the market has largely ignored them.✅ Export price lists remain highly varied, with large differences between sellers and qualities.

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🌍 Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 Hazelnut Prices Stabilize, but Demand Remains Weak

• The recent price drops have slowed, with buyers adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy.
• Short-term demand is below average, both domestically and for exports.

🔹 Export Prices Drop Due to FX Market Movements

• The Euro strengthened sharply after the EU and German government announced major economic stimulus programs.
• This led to a 4% appreciation of the Euro against the Turkish Lira, significantly affecting export price calculations.
• Additionally, both the ECB and Turkish Central Bank cut interest rates, further impacting FX markets.

🔹 Localized Frost Damage Reports

• Some regions reported minor frost damage to hazelnut orchards, but the market remains skeptical about any serious impact.
• A clearer picture will emerge by late April or early May.

🔹 Export Price Lists Show High Variability

• Large differences in pricing and quality levels persist.
• Buyers are encouraged to compare offers carefully before making purchases.

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🔮 Market Forecast (Next 3 Days)

📉 Expected Price Trends:

• 11-13 mm raw kernels: Likely stable, range: 7.70 – 7.85 €/kg.
• Smaller-caliber kernels & processed products: Possible slight declines if demand remains weak.
• Watch for further FX movements – any Lira depreciation could impact export prices.

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⛅ Weather Trend (Next 14 Days)

🇹🇷 Turkey – Black Sea Hazelnut Growing Regions

📍 Current:❄️ Cool but moderate conditions, with no extreme frost expected.🌡️ Daytime temperatures increasing slightly, nights remain cool.

📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ Temperatures stabilizing at 7-15°C.
• 🌧️ Scattered rain showers expected, improving soil moisture.
• No major weather disruptions expected.

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📉 Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

📍 Global Hazelnut Ending Stocks (Last 4 Years):

📍 Turkish Hazelnut Production & Forecast:

🔹 Takeaways:

• Global stocks continue to decline, supporting long-term price stability.
• Turkey’s production trend remains slightly downward, reinforcing supply concerns.

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🔍 Key Takeaways & Market Recommendations

📌 Summary:✔️ Hazelnut prices stabilize after last week's drop.✔️ Export prices decrease further due to Euro appreciation.✔️ Interest rate cuts impact financial markets.✔️ Localized frost damage reports, but market remains unconcerned.

📈 Strategic Outlook:➡️ Short-term: Prices for small kernels and processed products may decline slightly.➡️ Medium-term: FX market movements will be crucial for price trends.➡️ Long-term: Fundamentals remain firm with declining global stocks.

🔍 Actionable Insights:💡 Buyers:

• Take advantage of lower export prices while the Euro remains strong.
• Monitor frost reports closely before making long-term commitments.

💡 Sellers:

• Whole kernels remain more stable, while small kernels and paste face pressure.
• FX-driven price changes should be factored into upcoming sales strategies.