Indian Turmeric Production Likely to Decline by 10-15% Due to Weather Impact

Indian turmeric production is projected to be 10-15% lower this season. Primarily due to unfavorable weather conditions and crop diseases in the Nanded region. Reports of small rhizomes and crop rot have raised concerns among farmers and traders. Despite an increase of 330,000 hectares in cultivation area, unseasonal rains have negatively impacted productivity. The total production is expected to remain close to last year's 1.08 million tonnes, with a potential fluctuation of 3-5%.

Early Arrivals in Key Markets

The arrival of the new turmeric crop has started in Nizamabad and Hingoli Mandi, which has prevented significant price growth. The early supply has moderated market sentiment, and traders are watching how the crop quality and volume will impact future prices.

Export and Import Performance of Turmeric

Turmeric exports between April to November 2024 rose by 9.80%, reaching 121,601 tonnes. However, export performance in November 2024 showed mixed trends:

• November Exports: 48.22% year-on-year growth, but down 20.18% from October 2024.
• Imports: Turmeric imports increased by 101.80% to 18,937.95 tonnes during the same period. However, November imports declined by 34.84% from October and by 2.65% year-on-year.

Turmeric Trade Data (April-November 2024)

Limited Upside Expected in Turmeric

While the new crop arrivals have stabilized prices for now, the 10-15% expected reduction in production might support prices in the medium term. The market will remain cautious as the quality of the arriving crop and export demand will play a crucial role in determining price trends. With export growth showing strength, there is a possibility of price stability if domestic supply meets market demand.