
California Almond & Walnut Market โ Strong Sales & Firm Prices Despite Smaller Crop
๐ California Almond & Walnut Market โ Strong Sales & Firm Prices Despite Smaller Crop ๐
๐ Almond shipments remain stable โ Market prices rising amid speculation on 2025 crop sizeFebruary almond shipments totaled 97.5 thousand metric tons (214.9 million lbs.), a 2.8% decrease compared to February 2024. Despite the slight decline, the market remained highly active, with February sales reaching 220 million lbs., exceeding last yearโs figures.
Walnut shipments, however, saw a significant drop, with Inshell shipments down 81.2% YoY and kernel shipments down 21.3% YoY.
๐ Key Market Drivers:โ Strong sales activity in February, leading to firm pricing.โ Almond market sold at 66.7%, with some packers reporting over 70% sales completion.โ Bloom performance mixed โ speculation on 2.5 โ 2.7 billion lbs. for the 2025 crop is supporting price increases.โ US Dollar weakness helped international buyers.โ Walnut supply tightens โ inshell and pieces becoming harder to source.
๐ Outlook:With robust March shipment expectations and continued price firmness, the almond market remains strong, while the walnut market shows signs of supply constraints.
โก Full details on market trends, price forecasts & strategic recommendations below! ๐
๐ 1. Market Overview: Prices & Developments
๐ฐ Current Almond Prices (California, USD/lb FOB)
๐ Market Trends:- Almond kernel prices up 15 cents/lb, supported by strong February & early March sales.
- Inshell demand is strong, particularly from India & Europe.
- Walnut availability tightening, leading to price volatility.
๐ 2. Market Drivers & Key Factors
๐ฆ Supply & Production
๐ Key Takeaways:- Strong February sales totaled 220 million lbs., surpassing last yearโs 214 million lbs.
- Industry now 66.7% sold for new crop & carry-in โ some packers report over 70% sold.
- Walnut receipts at 598,221 tons, 11.8% below forecast and 23.4% lower than 2023.
๐ฆ๏ธ Weather & Bloom Update
- Nonpareil bloom rated average to below average, while Independence & Monterey performed well.
- Speculation on the 2025 crop size at 2.5 โ 2.7 billion lbs., influencing price trends.
- If the crop is on the lower end of estimates, prices will remain firm or increase.
๐ Exchange Rate Developments
๐ Market Impact:- Weaker USD helped international buyers, boosting exports.
- European demand up despite currency fluctuations.
๐ฎ 3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days)
๐ Expected Price Movements (FOB California, USD/lb)๐ Key Factors:
- Strong March shipments expected, limiting stock availability.
- Speculation on 2025 crop size driving price strength.
โ 4. Weather Outlook (Next 14 Days)
๐ California (San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento Valley)๐ Forecast (14 Days):- ๐ก๏ธ Temperatures: 8โ21ยฐC.
- ๐ง๏ธ Rainfall: 10โ40 mm.
- Possible Impact: Late bloom development in some areas.
- ๐ก๏ธ Temperatures: 26โ34ยฐC.
- ๐ง๏ธ Dry weather โ Boosting Inshell demand.
๐ 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
๐ Global Almond Stocks
๐ Summary:- Global stocks continue declining, which supports medium-term price stability.
- Walnut supply tightens, Inshell and pieces becoming scarce.
๐ 6. Conclusion & Market Recommendations
๐ Market Outlook
โ Strong exports continue to support firm prices.โ Almond demand remains strong, especially for Inshell & kernels.โ Walnut supply is decreasing, making sourcing more difficult.๐ Recommendations for Market Participants
๐ For Sellers (Growers, Exporters)โ Sell strategically as demand remains strong.โ Expect continued price strength due to smaller 2025 crop speculation.โ Walnut inventory tightening โ price increases likely.๐ For Buyers (Roasters, Traders)โ Secure Inshell supply before prices rise further.โ Watch bloom developments closely โ pricing hinges on 2025 crop size.โ Lock in kernel purchases before Q2 demand pressure increases prices.
๐ Next Position Report: April 12, 2025๐ Bloom Monitoring: MarchโApril 2025
๐ Stay informed with the latest market updates! ๐
