Rapeseed and Canola Face Heavy Losses – Soybean Market Reacts to Shifting Supply
📉 Rapeseed and Canola Face Heavy Losses – Soybean Market Reacts to Shifting Supply
📍 Oilseed markets remain highly volatile, with rapeseed and canola struggling under trade pressures and shifting global demand. While soybeans found some support, expectations for a record Brazilian export pace and ongoing adjustments in U.S. planting intentions continue to shape the market landscape.📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- Trade Tensions Keep Canola and Rapeseed Under Pressure 🌍📉→ New tariff actions continue to disrupt trade flows, reshaping global supply chains.→ China’s import restrictions on Canadian canola are hitting market sentiment hard.
- Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Gains Momentum 🚢→ Harvest progress remains ahead of schedule, fueling expectations for a strong export push.→ Traders are closely monitoring how South American supply will impact global pricing trends.
- Uncertainty in U.S. Planting Decisions 🌾→ Initial expectations for expanded corn acreage are being reconsidered, as economic conditions shift.→ Farmers may now favor soybeans over corn due to changing cost structures and export opportunities.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Rainfall Boosts Crop Expectations
📍 Current Conditions:→ Soil moisture continues to improve, stabilizing yield forecasts.📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Moderate, expected to remain steady.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Continued showers in key growing regions.
- 🚨 Impact: Likely to support late-season crops and improve harvest conditions.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Market sentiment remains cautious due to trade policy uncertainty.
- Resistance Level: €485/t
- Support Level: €465/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €470 – €480/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Market reacting to shifting supply conditions and ongoing export competition.
- Resistance Level: 1,015 ct/bu
- Support Level: 995 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,000 – 1,010 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:- Rapeseed and canola remain under pressure as trade disruptions continue.
- Soybeans show signs of stability but remain exposed to export-driven volatility.
- Uncertainty around planting intentions and global supply remains a major market driver.
