📈 Sugar Prices See Modest Gains – EU Market Remains Unchanged

ICE Sugar No. 5 futures posted modest gains, with the May 2025 contract rising by 0.52% to USD 541.50/t (EUR 503.60/t). While speculative interest remains mildly supportive, the EU sugar market continues to show weak demand, with prices still fluctuating between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA. Meanwhile, sugar producers are offering new contracts for the next season at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, yet market confidence in higher future prices remains questionable.

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📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments

📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR

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🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences

🔹 Modest Price Gains Driven by Technical Trading 📈

• Sugar futures rose slightly, driven by technical adjustments rather than fundamental demand.
• No major new buying interest was observed from industrial consumers.

🔹 EU Sugar Market: No Fundamental Demand Increase Despite Higher Contract Offers 🇪🇺

• New season contracts continue to be offered at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, yet actual demand remains weak.
• EU spot prices remain between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, failing to rise despite global price fluctuations.
• Producers seem eager to lock in contracts now, which suggests uncertainty rather than confidence in higher future prices.

🔹 Global Sugar Market Shows Stable Supply Conditions 🌎

• India’s production shortfalls remain a concern, but exports continue.
• Brazil and Thailand maintain steady sugar flows, keeping supply well-balanced.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (15.03 – 17.03.2025)

📉 Expected Price Movements:

• ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 535 – 545 USD/t (498 – 507 EUR/t)
• EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg

🔍 Market Outlook:

• Limited upside potential remains, with speculative traders keeping the market afloat.
• No fundamental demand shift expected in the EU, keeping prices under pressure.

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📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance

📌 Key Takeaways:

• EU sugar stocks remain stable, preventing large price movements.
• Imports continue to meet market demand, offsetting weak domestic consumption.
• Ethanol production remains unchanged, keeping sugar allocations steady.

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🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations

📌 Key Takeaways:✅ Sugar prices saw modest gains, driven by technical buying rather than strong demand.✅ EU market remains weak, with producers pushing new season contracts at higher prices.✅ Global supply remains well-balanced, preventing major price spikes.✅ Further market consolidation is expected, with no strong bullish momentum yet.

📊 Market Strategy:🔹 Buyers: Be cautious—higher contract prices for the next season may not be justified if demand remains weak.🔹 Sellers: Locking in contracts now could be a strategic move, given ongoing market uncertainty.🔹 Traders: Watch for resistance near 545 USD/t (507 EUR/t) for short-term positioning.

🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!